My take on life in Australia during a recession | AMP Capital

My take on life in Australia during a recession Going into a recession is bad news. When the economy goes backwards, spending contracts, the jobs market gets tougher, wages go down – the list goes on. This period ahead has come as a shock to many Australians, but there are some things worth noting that might make it easier to bear. Australia has been battling through a calamitous start to 2020 so far. We kicked …

After the Bell: daily market update, June 3 | AMP Capital

ECONOMICS & MARKETS After the Bell: daily market update, June 3 03 Jun, 2020 It was a historic day for Australia today, as the nation entered its first recession in 29 years. Our senior economist, Diana Mousina, explains how markets fared, and also commented on recent strengths in the Aussie dollar. Important information While every care has been taken in the preparation of this video, AMP Capital Investors Limited (ABN 59 001 777 591, AFSL …

What Australia’s recession will look and feel like | AMP Capital

What Australia’s recession will look and feel like A great proportion of the working population have never known a recession in Australia, and others will be haunted by the last in the early 1990s. This time around, I think Australia is in for a different experience to what we’ve seen and known before – and that’s not entirely a bad thing. The Australian government has, rightly, sacrificed economic activity in the name of health in …

Recession risks revealed

Recession risks revealed There’s been a lot of talk about a slowdown in Australia, including talk of a recession. That talk intensified this week after December quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures showed growth remained very weak in the December quarter. The December quarter figures show GDP grew just 0.2 per cent and dragging annual growth in 2018 down to 2.3 per cent. Those numbers were below market expectations and below the Reserve Bank of …

Australia slides into a “per capita recession”

Australia slides into a “per capita recession” Key points Australian growth slowed even more in the December quarter. Growth may bounce back a bit this year, but the housing downturn will likely constrain it to around 2- 2.5%.   As a result, unemployment is likely to drift up and wages growth and inflation remain lower for longer.   The RBA is on track to cut rates this year and the housing downturn will likely see …

Five charts and a table that are critical to watch regarding the global economy and markets this year

Five charts and a table that are critical to watch regarding the global economy and markets this year Key points After a strong rebound since December share markets are at risk of a short-term pull back. However, despite this we see this year as being a decent year for share market returns.   Five key global charts to watch as to whether this will be the case are: global business conditions PMIs; global inflation; the …

2019 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook

2019 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook Key points Despite continued volatility, 2019 is likely to be better for diversified investors than 2018 was.   Recession is unlikely and so too is a long and deep bear market in shares.   Watch the US trade war, the Fed, global business conditions indicators, Chinese growth, politics and the Sydney and Melbourne property markets. Introduction 2017 was a great year for well diversified …

Market correction or market downturn?

Market correction or market downturn? It’s understandable that the recent sharp sell-off on financial markets has left investors feeling particularly nervous. The main concern has been the US Federal Reserve’s shift in monetary policy from low rates and printing money to rising rates and the withdrawal of that printing policy. But there’s also a lengthy worry list of issues that we hear continuously: the US trade conflict with China, issues around the leadership of President …

The US economy – does the flattening yield curve indicate recession is imminent?

The US economy – does the flattening yield curve indicate recession is imminent? Key points If you are worried about a major bear market, the US economy is the key to watch. While traditional measures of the US yield curve have flattened sending warning signs about future growth, it has given false signals in the past, is still positive and other versions of the yield curve point to rising growth. Moreover, apart from very low …

Share market volatility – Trump and trade war risks

Share market volatility – Trump and trade war risks Key points Worries about the Fed, trade wars (the risk of which has been significantly exaggerated) and President Trump generally have increased the risk around the global outlook but are unlikely to drive a major bear market. The key issue is whether the US is about to enter a recession and our assessment remains that a US recession is not imminent. The key for investors is …