Oliver’s insights – Australian dollar

Five reasons to expect the Australian dollar to rise into next year: it’s undervalued; short term interest rate differentials look likely to shift in favour of Australia; sentiment towards the $A is negative; commodities still look to have entered a new super cycle; and Australia has a solid current account surplus.

Oliver’s insights – goldilocks versus recession

Recession versus “goldilocks” – five reasons why we could still avoid
recession

Oliver’s insights podcast: Episode #81: Have we dodged the recession bullet?

As rapid monetary tightening means a high risk of recession continues to persist, growth has generally been more resilient than expected. AMP’s chief economist Dr. Shane Oliver looks at five key reasons for why we could still avoid recession. Important information: This podcast is general in nature and hasn’t taken your circumstances into account. It’s important you consider your personal circumstances and speak to a financial adviser before deciding what’s right for you. Any general …

Oliver’s insights – Australian recession Q&A

Recession has been a recurring theme over the last year or so but has intensified lately. But what’s driving it? How serious is the risk of recession? And what would it mean for Australians and investors?

Econosights – recession risks

Forecasts of a looming recession in 2023 or early 2024 in major economies have become consensus

Oliver’s insights – shares hit another bout of turbulence

Shares have hit turbulence again with worries about inflation, interest rates, recession and, now, problems in US banks. Read more to learn what this means for investors.

2021-22 saw poor investment returns – the bad news and the good | AMP Capital

2021-22 saw poor investment returns – the bad news and the good   Key points 2021-22 was a rough year for investors as high inflation, rising interest rates and recession fears impacted. Shares could still fall further as interest rates continue to rise and recession risks are high. However, inflation pressures are showing some signs of easing which may take pressure off central banks from later this year. Some key things for investors to keep …

Econosights: Global growth fears – are we heading into a recession? | AMP Capital

Econosights: Global growth fears – are we heading into a recession? Key points Global growth is slowing as fiscal and monetary policy are tightening. High inflation means that interest rates will be increased further from here. Recession indicators (an inversion in the US 2/10 year yield curve and the bear market in global shares) are showing increased odds of a recession in the next 12-18 months. We have lowered Australian GDP forecasts and now see …

Econosights: Europe recession risks– implications from the war in Ukraine | AMP Capital

Econosights: Europe recession risks– implications from the war in Ukraine Key points Eurozone inflation is likely to be well over 6% per annum by mid-year from high commodity prices lifting electricity, gas and petrol costs. This will hit consumer spending. Risks of a Eurozone recession in the first half of 2022 are high. The US should avoid recession for now. The ECB appears too optimistic on the growth outlook despite the conflict in Ukraine which …

Joe Biden on track to become US president – implications for investors and Australia

Joe Biden on track to become US president – implications for investors and Australia   Key points The US election has been close and final counting as well as legal challenges could still upset the result, but the now highly likely outcome is a Biden Presidency. While there is a possibility that the Democrats could win control of the Senate via runoff elections in Georgia, the most likely outcome is that Democrats will retain control …