Oliver’s insights podcast: Episode #80: Another look at the RBA

AMP’s chief economist Dr. Shane Oliver reviews the Reserve Bank’s decision this week to hold at 4.1%. Has the RBA found a sustainable balance or is household spending power still likely to take even more of a hit in the coming months? For more info visit our insights hub: https://www.amp.com.au/insights-hub Important information: This podcast is general in nature and hasn’t taken your circumstances into account. It’s important you consider your personal circumstances and speak to …

Weekly market update 17-03-2023

This week, Dr Shane Oliver highlights the banking stress – the bad news (increased recession risk) and good news (less rate hikes); US inflation; raises the question as to whether Australian home prices bottomed; and more.

Oliver’s insights – shares hit another bout of turbulence

Shares have hit turbulence again with worries about inflation, interest rates, recession and, now, problems in US banks. Read more to learn what this means for investors.

Econosights: Is the Bank of England’s recession forecast a warning for other central banks? | AMP Capital

Econosights: Is the Bank of England’s recession forecast a warning for other central banks?   Key points The Bank of England’s latest forecasts assume a bleak outlook for the UK over 2022/23 with inflation peaking at 13%, a decline in GDP growth of more than 2% and a recession lasting over a year. Australia and the US are facing some similarities to the UK economy, but the energy crisis in both countries is less severe. …

Inflation in the 70s – baby boomer fantasy or nightmare? Why central banks must focus on getting inflation back down | AMP Capital

Inflation in the 70s – baby boomer fantasy or nightmare? Why central banks must focus on getting inflation back down   Key points The high inflation of the 1970s was bad for economies and bad for investment returns. The long-term downtrend in inflation and interest rates is likely over removing a tailwind for investment returns. But a return to sustained 1970’s levels of inflation appears unlikely. Introduction I grew up in the 1970s and it …

The RBA ends bond buying – but remains “patient” on rates. We expect the first rate hike in August | AMP Capital

The RBA ends bond buying – but remains “patient” on rates. We expect the first rate hike in August   Key Points The RBA will end quantitative easing this month. While it now sees unemployment falling below 4% and higher inflation it is prepared to be “patient” for now. We expect rate hikes to commence in August. Ultimately, we see the cash rate rising to around 1.5 to 2% in the years ahead but it’s …

Inflation Q&A – how worried should investors be about higher inflation? | AMP Capital

Inflation Q&A – how worried should investors be about higher inflation?   Key Points Inflation is placing increasing pressure on major central banks to remove monetary stimulus. Inflation & rising interest rates will likely contribute to more volatile & constrained investment returns this year. The long-term downtrend in inflation and interest rates since the early 1980s is likely to be over removing a tailwind for investment returns. Introduction For last few decades inflation has not …

Central banks – including the RBA and Fed – gradually removing monetary stimulus is more good news than bad | AMP Capital

Central banks – including the RBA and Fed – gradually removing monetary stimulus is more good news than bad Key Points The march of central banks towards removing monetary stimulus is continuing with the RBA bringing forward its guidance regarding the first rate hike and the Fed set to commence tapering. We expect both to start raising rates later next year. The shift towards monetary tightening signals slower more constrained share market returns – but …

Central banks heading towards the easing exits – five reasons not to be too concerned | AMP Capital

Central banks heading towards the easing exits – five reasons not to be too concerned Key points The gradual shift of central banks including the Fed and RBA towards an exit from monetary easing has caused some volatility in investment markets. We continue to expect the first RBA rate hike to be in 2023, albeit there is a risk it could come in late 2022. However, there are five reasons not to be too concerned: …

Mortgage relief to be extended for struggling Aussies | Money & Life

Mortgage relief to be extended for struggling Aussies There may be some welcome news for distressed Aussie homeowners, with banks extending their offer of mortgage relief to those in need. Find out more about the offer and pay off your home loan sooner. Mortgage holders who are still struggling financially due to the impact of COVID-19 will be eligible for a further four-month extension to repay their home loans. The Australian Banking Association says lenders will work with …