Five charts and a table that are critical to watch regarding the global economy and markets this year

Five charts and a table that are critical to watch regarding the global economy and markets this year Key points After a strong rebound since December share markets are at risk of a short-term pull back. However, despite this we see this year as being a decent year for share market returns.   Five key global charts to watch as to whether this will be the case are: global business conditions PMIs; global inflation; the …

2019 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook

2019 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook Key points Despite continued volatility, 2019 is likely to be better for diversified investors than 2018 was.   Recession is unlikely and so too is a long and deep bear market in shares.   Watch the US trade war, the Fed, global business conditions indicators, Chinese growth, politics and the Sydney and Melbourne property markets. Introduction 2017 was a great year for well diversified …

The five big fears that shaped 2018

The five big fears that shaped 2018 After solid returns and relatively low volatility in 2017, many investors entered 2018 fairly optimistic, however we expected returns would be more constrained and more volatile than they were last year. Looking at the big picture, global growth was good, we saw relatively low inflation globally and the Australian economy grew at a reasonable rate. Five big fears But five big concerns came together to deliver a surprisingly …

The Fed and market turmoil – the Fed turns a bit dovish but not enough (yet)

The Fed and market turmoil – the Fed turns a bit dovish but not enough (yet) Key points  The Fed has raised interest rates for the ninth time since first raising rates this cycle three years ago, taking the Fed Funds rate from a range of 2-2.25% to 2.25-2.5% reflecting ongoing confidence in US growth.  However, with US interest rates approaching the “neutral” zone, some interest sensitive sectors slowing, with various headwinds to growth, and …

The Australian economy 2019 – house prices, growth and interest rates

The Australian economy 2019 – house prices, growth and interest rates   Key points Australian growth has slowed again. The housing cycle downturn and its impact on the economy will likely see growth constrained to around 2.5-3%.   LAs a result, spare capacity is likely to remain significant, keeping wages growth and inflation low.   The RBA is likely to cut rates in 2019 and the housing downturn will likely see Australian shares continue to …

Corrections, gummy bears and grizzly bears in shares

Corrections, gummy bears and grizzly bears in shares Key points The pullback in shares could still have further to go but a deep (grizzly) bear market is unlikely as US, global or Australian recession are unlikely. Increasing US Federal Reserve openness to a pause in raising rates, the likelihood of a US/China trade deal sometime in the next six months and the plunge in oil prices all add to confidence that a grizzly bear market …

The pullback in shares – 7 things investors need to keep in mind

The pullback in shares – 7 things investors need to keep in mind Key points   The current pullback in shares has been triggered by a range of things – but most notably worries about rising US interest rates and the US/China conflict.    Shares may still have more downside, but we are of the view that it’s just another correction.   Key things for investors to bear in mind are that: corrections are normal; in …

The 2018-19 Australian Budget – saving a windfall with the hope of (decent) tax cuts to come

The 2018-19 Australian Budget – saving a windfall with the hope of (decent) tax cuts to come Introduction The 2018-19 Budget will be the last before the next election (due by May 2019) and so had to provide pre-election goodies but in a way that keeps the return to surplus on track. Thanks to an improvement in the budget position since the Mid-Year review, of around $7bn per annum, this has been made relatively easy. …

Where are we in the unlisted commercial property cycle?

Where are we in the unlisted commercial property cycle? Key points Australian unlisted commercial property returns have been very strong this decade thanks largely to the “search for attractive yield” by investors. This return driver is expected to start to fade but rising rents, particularly in the south-east office markets, will provide an offset keeping returns solid for now. Commercial property yields still offer a strong premium relative to bonds suggesting we are a long …

New year, new financial resolutions

New year, new financial resolutions The dawn of a new year is the perfect time to hit reset and correct course when it comes to your money. You may have already given thought to some health-related wellness goals for 2018, but what about your financial wellness? AMP research has revealed that a quarter of Australian workers have difficulty in making ends meet, with the most common triggers for financial stress found to be bad debt, …