Oliver’s insights – 2024 macro investment outlook

Despite lots of angst at the start of the year, 2023 turned out far better than feared. Dr Shane Oliver reflects on key themes from the past year and suggests what investors should look out for in 2024

Oliver’s insights – Australian dollar

Five reasons to expect the Australian dollar to rise into next year: it’s undervalued; short term interest rate differentials look likely to shift in favour of Australia; sentiment towards the $A is negative; commodities still look to have entered a new super cycle; and Australia has a solid current account surplus.

Five constraints on medium term investment returns

  Download PDF version Five constraints on medium term investment returns Key points – Five megatrends suggest higher medium term inflation pressures & lower economic growth than pre-pandemic. – These are: a move away from economic rationalist policies; the reversal of globalisation; rising geopolitical tensions; climate change and decarbonisation; as well as slowing and aging populations. A productivity boost from artificial intelligence should provide some partial offset though. – But taken together this will likely …

Oliver’s insights Podcast: Ep#97

Episode #97: Five constraints on medium term investment returns In the 1980s and 90s superannuation investment returns were very strong. But since 1999, nominal superannuation returns have been more constrained averaging 6.2% pa as we entered a lower return world. Five key structural trends suggest higher medium term inflation pressures and constrained economic growth than pre-pandemic. AMP’s Chief Economist, Dr. Shane Oliver looks at why this is happening as well as the implications investment returns. …

Oliver’s Insights – five charts on investing to keep in mind

Five charts focusing on critical aspects of investing that are insightful in times of market stress

Long-term global trends and implications for markets

Trends that influencing economic growth and investment markets

Five reasons why the RBA cash rate is likely to peak (or should peak) with a 2 in front of it rather than a 3 (or more) | AMP Capital

Five reasons why the RBA cash rate is likely to peak (or should peak) with a 2 in front of it rather than a 3 (or more) Key points The RBA has hiked the cash rate by another 0.5% taking it to 1.85% and signalling more hikes ahead. We see the cash rate peaking around 2.6% which is at the low end of market and economists’ expectations. Market & consensus expectations for rates to rise …

Another five great charts on investing that are very useful in times of uncertainty like the present | AMP Capital

Another five great charts on investing that are very useful in times of uncertainty like the present   Key points Successful investing can be really difficult in times of uncertainty like now making it important to stay Here are another five great charts to help illuminate those basic principles: the importance of time in the market versus timing; the case to look less at your investments; the relationship between risk and return; the value of …

Five great charts on investing that are particularly useful in times of uncertainty like the present | AMP Capital

Five great charts on investing that are particularly useful in times of uncertainty like the present Key Points Successful investing can be very difficult in times like the present with immense uncertainty around inflation, interest rates, war in Ukraine & continuing covid waves. This makes it all the more important to stay focused on the basic principles of successful investing. These five great charts help illuminate key aspects of investing: the power of compound interest; …