Inflation – why it matters for investment markets | AMP Capital

  Inflation – why it matters for investment markets Key points The shift from high inflation to low inflation has been a key tailwind for investment returns over the last 40 years – in particular it has allowed capital growth in excess of growth in earnings and rents. A long-term stabilisation in inflation around central bank targets which is our base case would remove this tailwind but still allow reasonable returns, whereas a sustained break …

Australian housing finance is booming… but can it continue?

Australian housing finance is booming… but can it continue? What the data is saying According to figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) , the total value of new loan commitments for housing and within that, the value of owner occupier home loan commitments each reached record highs last month. Some key figures include: 1. The total value of new loan commitments for housing rose 8.6 per cent to $26 billion (seasonally adjusted.) This …

What could a Biden Presidency mean for market outcomes?

What could a Biden Presidency mean for market outcomes? Market performance in the wake of the US election has been overwhelmingly positive, with Australian and US shares up 11% in November, Japanese shares up 16% and Eurozone shares up 17%. It’s somewhat of an ironic note, given Donald Trump’s fondness to cite stock market strength as indicators of his own economic success, and yet it’s gone up on news of his election loss. There are …

Modern Monetary Theory – can it help with economic problems or is it just another Magic Money Tree?

  Modern Monetary Theory – can it help with economic problems or is it just another Magic Money Tree? Key points Modern Monetary Theory reminds us that monetary financing of government spending need not be inflationary if there is spare capacity in the economy. But it suffers from a number of problems: it implies there is always some sort of free lunch; it underestimates the costs of large-scale public employment programs; and it underestimates the …

Make your cancelled holiday count

Make your cancelled holiday count If your usual Christmas travel plans have been put on hold by COVID-19, don’t despair. Your holiday savings could turn out to be a cash bonanza for your finances. COVID-19 has played havoc with our love of travel, forcing many to shelve their annual summer holiday for another year. But while you still can’t take that overseas trip you’ve been craving, there are plenty of ways to put your funds …

Modern Monetary Theory – can it help with economic problems or is it just another Magic Money Tree?

Modern Monetary Theory – can it help with economic problems or is it just another Magic Money Tree? Key points Modern Monetary Theory reminds us that monetary financing of government spending need not be inflationary if there is spare capacity in the economy. But it suffers from a number of problems: it implies there is always some sort of free lunch; it underestimates the costs of large-scale public employment programs; and it underestimates the difficulties …

Econosights: Global labour markets are worse than they appear

Econosights: Global labour markets are worse than they appear Key points Global labour markets have proved resilient during the COVID-19 shock. One of the reasons for this is the utilisation of wage subsidy schemes. These schemes mask stood down or underutilised workers, keeping the unemployment rate artificially lower than it would be otherwise. The labour force participation rate has also plummeted in developed countries which has helped to keep the unemployment rate down. These discouraged …

Five reasons why this downturn and subsequent recovery are different – and where are we in the Australian recovery now?

Five reasons why this downturn and subsequent recovery are different – and where are we in the Australian recovery now? Key points This economic downturn and recovery differs from those of the past in that: the downturn was driven by a government shutdown; fiscal and monetary support has been faster and bigger; forced asset sales have been headed off; it’s dependent on containing coronavirus; and it’s seeing more rapid structural change. As a result, we …

RBA cuts rates to just 0.1% and ramps up quantitative easing – but will it work?

RBA cuts rates to just 0.1% and ramps up quantitative easing – but will it work? Key points The RBA has cut the cash rate to a record low 0.1% & announced a broad-based quantitative easing program. While the economic boost is likely to be small compared to that provided by the recent Budget, the further reduction in borrowing costs will support household & corporate finances and housing demand as well as keep the $A …

Five reasons why this downturn and subsequent recovery are different – and where are we in the Australian recovery now?

Five reasons why this downturn and subsequent recovery are different – and where are we in the Australian recovery now?   Key points This economic downturn and recovery differs from those of the past in that: the downturn was driven by a government shutdown; fiscal and monetary support has been faster and bigger; forced asset sales have been headed off; it’s dependent on containing coronavirus; and it’s seeing more rapid structural change. As a result, …