Trumponomics and investment markets

Trumponomics and investment markets Key points So far President Trump has been positive for share markets but this year the focus is increasingly shifting to populist policies with greater risk for investors. The key risks to keep an eye on in this regard relate to trade conflict and the expanding US budget deficit, although the latter is more a risk for when the US economy next turns down. However, the best approach for investors in …

Weekly Market Update 25 May 2018

Weekly Market Update 25 May 2018 Investment markets and key developments over the past week The past week has again seen geopolitical issues dominate with renewed trade worries out of the US, the cancellation of the North Korean summit and rising angst around the formation of a populist coalition government in Italy. Despite this US shares managed a slight rise but Eurozone, Japanese, Chinese and Australian shares fell. Bond yields continued to blow out in Italy …

Share market volatility – Trump and trade war risks

Share market volatility – Trump and trade war risks Key points Worries about the Fed, trade wars (the risk of which has been significantly exaggerated) and President Trump generally have increased the risk around the global outlook but are unlikely to drive a major bear market. The key issue is whether the US is about to enter a recession and our assessment remains that a US recession is not imminent. The key for investors is …

Tariffs, Trump, North Korea and other global political risks in the Year of the Dog

Tariffs, Trump, North Korea and other global political risks in the Year of the Dog Key points Geopolitical issues generate much interest as dinner party conversations but don’t necessarily have a significant impact on markets, apart from a bit of noise. But given a backlash against economic rationalist policies, the falling relative power of the US & the ability of social media to allow us to make our own reality, geopolitical risks are higher than they used to be. Key …

Pricing President Trump into global markets

10 November 2017 Pricing President Trump into global markets Pricing in the possibility of an early exit by Donald Trump from the United States Presidency may feel a bit hypothetical at this stage, but it’s an exercise worth undertaking for investors concerned about potential portfolio shocks, says Dr Shane Oliver, AMP Capital’s Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist. Straight off the bat it’s worth noting that a possible move to impeach President Trump – …