Weekly Market Update 11 January 2019

Weekly Market Update 11 January 2019 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Since our last weekly update three weeks ago investment markets have been on a bit of a roller coaster ride, with Santa missing Christmas for markets but arriving the day after. Global shares led by the US continued to plunge into Christmas as the US saw the start of a partial government shutdown taking the decline in the US share market …

Four reasons the global economic outlook for 2019 looks positive

Four reasons the global economic outlook for 2019 looks positive Many investors have been rattled by falls in share markets and are fretting about what the new year may hold. But there are a number of reasons to suggest that after a weak 2018, 2019 will be better, and that a well-diversified portfolio should deliver reasonable returns. 1. This is a “mid-cycle” correction Firstly, while some investors fear a recession and full-blown bear market, when …

Review of 2018, outlook for 2019 – another cycle extension

Review of 2018, outlook for 2019 – another cycle extension Key points 2018 saw reasonable global economic and profit growth and still low interest rates but it has been a rough year for investors with worries about the Fed, trade wars and global growth causing volatility and poor returns.   2019 is unlikely to see the plunge into recession many fear with growth likely to stabilise supporting profit growth, the Fed is likely to undertake …

Boom turns to bust – falling Australian home prices.

Boom turns to bust – falling Australian home prices. How far and for how long and what’s the impact on the economy? Key points Property prices in Sydney and Melbourne are likely to see top to bottom falls of around 20% as credit conditions tighten, supply rises and a negative feedback loop from falling prices risks developing.   Other cities will perform better having not seen the boom of the last few years.   Property …

Outlook for the Australian economy

Outlook for the Australian economy   Investors might have noted some recent positives in the Australian economy. June quarter GDP growth of 3.4% was above potential and its fastest rate since 2012. We have also seen pretty good jobs numbers, with the unemployment rate trending down and sitting at a six-year low of 5.3%. And job ads, job vacancies and employment surveys have also been solid. (While job vacancies growth slowed to 0.6% in the …

Under 40 and broke: Why young people need financial advice more than ever

Under 40 and broke: Why young people need financial advice more than ever With increasing debt and falling home ownership among the under 40s, their financial prospects are less than rosy.  If this trend is set to continue, young people are going to be needing financial advice more than ever to help them make the best choices for a secure future. There’s been a lot of talk in recent years about how much better off …

2017-18 saw strong returns for diversified investors – but there’s a few storm clouds around

2017-18 saw strong returns for diversified investors – but there’s a few storm clouds around Key points 2017-18 saw strong returns for diversified investors, but it was a story of two halves with strong December half returns but more volatility in the past 6 months. Key lessons for investors from the last financial year include: turn down the noise around financial markets, maintain a well-diversified portfolio; be cautious of the crowd; and cash continues to …

Weekly Market Update 1 June 2018

Weekly Market Update 1 June 2018 Investment markets and key developments over the past week The past week saw financial markets dominated yet again by geopolitical developments with first the turmoil in Italy and then US trade announcements rattling share markets with most falling and driving down bond yields (except in Italy of course) as investors sought safe havens. Commodity prices were mixed with copper up slightly but oil and iron ore down. Despite the volatility …

The outlook for real assets in 2018

The outlook for real assets in 2018 Adjustments to monetary policy by Central Banks globally, along with the technological change sweeping through and changing the shape of industries, emerge as the two pervasive themes likely to define real asset valuations in 2018 and beyond, according to leading real estate and infrastructure experts. The favourable outlook for real assets is set to continue in 2018, with interest rates globally set to stay at historically low levels, …

2018 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook

2018 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook Key points 2018 is likely to remain good for diversified investors. The investment cycle still favours growth assets over cash and bonds. But expect more volatile and constrained returns as US inflation starts to turn up. Watch US inflation, bond yields, President Trump, the Italian election, China, the Sydney and Melbourne property markets and global business conditions PMIs. Introduction Although 2017 saw the usual …