The trade war is back – what went wrong, what it means for share markets and Australia

The trade war is back – what went wrong, what it means for share markets and Australia   Key points   Consumer expectations of instant gratification are driving down delivery times   Labour shortages and traffic congestion highlight the criticality of well-located logistics facilities The trade war between the US and China has returned after talks to resolve their trade differences broke down. Our base case remains that a deal will be reached to resolve …

Are shares expensive?

Are shares expensive? Key points Starting point valuations for shares matter a lot in terms of medium-term return potential and vulnerability to share market falls. Basically, the cheaper the better.   Developed market shares are not dirt cheap (and haven’t been for several years) but on most measures they are not at overvalued extremes. US shares are most at risk, but other markets are reasonable. Introduction Some commentators claim shares are way overvalued and so …

Share financial goals to make your relationship stronger

  Share financial goals to make your relationship stronger When money can be such a big source of stress and conflict in relationships, it makes sense to get on the same page with finances. Our guest contributor, James Trethewie Financial Planner AFP®offers some important advice to help couples succeed in sharing and achieving their financial goals. So you’re convinced that love conquers all and money matters can’t possibly come between you and your partner. Some …

Share market volatility – Trump and trade war risks

Share market volatility – Trump and trade war risks Key points Worries about the Fed, trade wars (the risk of which has been significantly exaggerated) and President Trump generally have increased the risk around the global outlook but are unlikely to drive a major bear market. The key issue is whether the US is about to enter a recession and our assessment remains that a US recession is not imminent. The key for investors is …

Why passive investing now won’t deliver all your goals

Why passive investing now won’t deliver all your goals Passive investment funds used to be a relatively obscure part of the market. But with their popularity soaring in recent years, many investors might now be sceptical about paying for active investment. Market performance over recent years would reinforce that scepticism. Holding a passive mix of mainstream assets has performed very well over the last 5 years. For example, an investor who suffers a permanent 25% …

Where’s all the share market volatility coming from?

Where’s all the share market volatility coming from? There is quite a lot of talk about volatility coming back to share markets all of a sudden, and with the talk there’s also bit of conjecture about where the volatility originates from. Some say it’s because interest rates and bond yields are beginning to rise; others will point to the end of quantitative easing in the United States and elsewhere for the bumpier ride. The return …

Equities riding on fear not fundamentals

Equities riding on fear not fundamentals “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself,” said Franklin D Roosevelt at his inauguration as US President in 1933. I think “the only thing we have to fear is the fear index itself” is a better description of where investors are at right now. It’s been a wild ride on Wall Street and beyond of the past week – the worst in two years for the …

5 ways to keep a cool head in a falling share market

5 ways to keep a cool head in a falling share market Despite concern, falling share prices are not necessarily a sign of a mild or major bear market situation, according to Dr Shane Oliver. The share market correction many people are talking about at the moment is causing concern for a number of investors, including those accumulating super and drawing money from their super savings, which is understandable given the rapid falls we’ve seen …

The pullback in shares – seven reasons not to be too concerned

09 February 2018 The pullback in shares – seven reasons not to be too concerned Key points The current pullback in shares has been triggered by worries around US inflation, the Fed and rising bond yields but made worse by an unwinding of bets that volatility would continue to fall. We may have seen the worst, but it’s too early to say for sure. However, our view remains that it’s just another correction. Key things …

Correction time for shares?

Correction time for shares? Key points The US share market is long overdue a decent correction. This now appears to be unfolding and may have further to go as higher inflation, a slightly more aggressive Fed and higher bond yields are factored in. This will impact most share markets including Australian shares. However, in the absence of an aggressive 1994 style back-up in bond yields or a US recession – neither of which we expect …