Market Update 23 April 2021 | AMP Capital

Market Update 23 April 2021 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Share markets generally fell over the last week with first worries about the resurgence in global coronavirus cases and then reports that President Biden will propose a doubling in capital gains tax for high income earners weighing on markets. Although Chinese shares managed to rise from a double bottom after sharp falls since February, US, European and Japanese shares fell. Despite the …

Econosights: Australian economic policy beyond COVID-19 | AMP Capital

Econosights: Australian economic policy beyond COVID-19   Key points The post-pandemic economic rebound is strong in Australia. But, after the initial bounce in activity, there is a need to reinvigorate the drivers of long-run economic growth. Productivity growth has been low in Australia and needs to lift to see a rise in incomes and living standards. Higher productivity growth is achieved through economic reform. Areas in Australia that deserve policy attention include: lifting household incomes …

Market Update 26 March 2021 | AMP Capital

  Market Update 26 March 2021 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Market sentiment was more cautious this week on concern about the economic reopening from rising COVID-19 cases and vaccine delays. Seasonal impacts affect sharemarkets as well and quarter-end profit taking may also be contributing to sharemarket weakness. US shares on the S&P500 were just negative over the week at -0.1% while the heavier tech NASDAQ index was down by 1.8%. NASDAQ …

Econosights: Outlook for the US economy in 2021

Econosights: Outlook for the US economy in 2021 Key points The US is due for a strong economic recovery in 2021, driven by a large injection of fiscal stimulus. US GDP should have recovered its 2020 COVID losses in the March quarter and be back to its pre-COVID trend level of GDP by end of the year. Fiscal stimulus could overheat the economy in late 2021/early 2022. Consumer inflation expectations are already at multi-year highs. …

The bond crash of 2021? Seven things for investors to consider

The bond crash of 2021? Seven things for investors to consider Key points Higher bond yields are normal in economic recovery and should not be a major problem for shares if they are matched by rising earnings. But too rapid a rise in bond yields risks driving a deeper correction in shares. Central banks want higher inflation but will look through any short-term spike. The 40-year downtrend in inflation and bond yields is likely over. …

Market Update 05 February 2021

Market Update 05 February 2021 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Global share markets rebounded over the last week helped by good economic data and earnings news, reduced concerns around vaccines and as worries about the Reddit/day trader crowd adding to volatility fizzled. This saw the US share market rise to a new record high. Reflecting the positive global lead along with strong Australian data and a very dovish message from the RBA …

US political protests, inflation and rising bond yields

US political protests, inflation and rising bond yields   Key points US protests are only an issue for investment markets if they significantly impact economic activity. Global and Australian recovery will boost bond yields and there is good reason to believe that (after yet another false ending) the now nearly 40-year super cycle decline in bond yields may be at or close to over. But the end of the bond bull market is likely to …

Market Update 18 December 2020 | AMP Capital

Market Update 18 December 2020 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Global share markets pushed higher again over the last week as the roll out of vaccines and US stimulus optimism offset uncertainties about the near-term impact from lockdowns. While the latest coronavirus outbreak in Sydney weighed on Australian shares on Friday, the local share market still rose for a seventh week in a row helped by the positive global lead and stronger …

The Australian Government’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook – peak deficit has likely been seen

The Australian Government’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook – peak deficit has likely been seen Key points Reflecting the faster than expected Australian economic recovery, the Federal Government has upgraded its growth forecasts and downgraded its unemployment expectations. This in turn, along with higher than expected revenue from higher iron ore prices, has seen the expected budget deficit for this financial year revised down slightly to $198bn from $214bn. We have probably now seen the …

Econosights: The unequal impact of COVID-19 across Australia’s states

Econosights: The unequal impact of COVID-19 across Australia’s states   Key points States/territories with lower cases of COVID-19 have had stronger economic performance compared to the hardest hit states of NSW and Vic. This is not surprising given the imposed and self-regulated household mobility restrictions. Lower overseas migration over the next few years is a big negative for NSW and Vic state growth. Net migration had been a big driver of NSW and Vic population …