Insights: Why the need to lift productivity – and why it might be hard

Why the need to lift productivity Download PDF version Insights: Why the need to lift productivity – and why it might be hard Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Key points – The last 20 years have seen a slump in productivity growth in Australia from over 2% pa to less than 1% pa. This has curtailed growth in living standards and real wages. It will adversely affect asset class returns …

Correction time? Shares get the wobblies – seven things investors need to keep in mind | AMP Capital

Correction time? Shares get the wobblies – seven things investors need to keep in mind Key Points Share markets have hit the wobbles lately on the back of a long worry list ranging from growth concerns, central bank tapering, the US debt ceiling and fears of about China Evergrande’s problems. Shares may still have more downside as it will take a while to resolve some of these issues. Key things for investors to bear in …

Shane Oliver joins Simplifying Super podcast to share his top five investment mantras

Shane Oliver joins Simplifying Super podcast to share his top five investment mantras AMP Capital’s Head of Investment Strategy and Economics, and Chief Economist, Dr Shane Oliver shares his top five investment mantras in the latest episode of AMP’s Simplifying Super* podcast. At the top of the list is make the most of the power of compound interest, which Dr Oliver says can lead to exponential growth in returns over time. “The way to make …

Econosights: Australian economic policy beyond COVID-19 | AMP Capital

Econosights: Australian economic policy beyond COVID-19   Key points The post-pandemic economic rebound is strong in Australia. But, after the initial bounce in activity, there is a need to reinvigorate the drivers of long-run economic growth. Productivity growth has been low in Australia and needs to lift to see a rise in incomes and living standards. Higher productivity growth is achieved through economic reform. Areas in Australia that deserve policy attention include: lifting household incomes …

Econosights: Outlook for the US economy in 2021

Econosights: Outlook for the US economy in 2021 Key points The US is due for a strong economic recovery in 2021, driven by a large injection of fiscal stimulus. US GDP should have recovered its 2020 COVID losses in the March quarter and be back to its pre-COVID trend level of GDP by end of the year. Fiscal stimulus could overheat the economy in late 2021/early 2022. Consumer inflation expectations are already at multi-year highs. …

Econosights: The economics of COVID-19 lockdowns | AMP Capital

Econosights: The economics of COVID-19 lockdowns   Key points Rising COVID-19 cases around the world is leading to questions about the need for another round of government lockdowns to stop the spread of the virus. Lockdowns lead to closed businesses, lower household spending and higher unemployment. But a lot of these outcomes would still occur without a lockdown as households self-regulate their behaviour. Sweden is evidence of this. It has pursued a herd immunity strategy, …

How is the Kiwi dollar faring?

How is the Kiwi dollar faring? Investors have been watching the Australian dollar weaken since January, but they may not be aware that the currency of our near neighbour New Zealand has also been under pressure, with further weakening likely. The New Zealand dollar has fallen as the Fed continues to raise rates in the US and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced an unexpectedly dovish policy stance. In its August monetary statement, …

What’s happening in the Chinese economy at the moment?

What’s happening in the Chinese economy at the moment?   Investors should keep a watching brief on the Chinese economy, AMP Capital Investment Strategist, Angus Nicholson says. He warns that key risks include weak credit growth, the US trade war and signs of slowing global growth. “Investors should keep a bit of an eye on China this year. China has been a growing risk factor in many investors’ perceptions at the moment.” But Nicholson says …

Six forces driving Australian equity portfolio returns

Six forces driving Australian equity portfolio returns We are now in the late stage of the business cycle when a range of risks and opportunities are being thrown up at Australian equity investors. These reflect changes in fast-moving global markets, domestic policy choices and the evolving priorities of local businesses. These changes will create exciting opportunities for some Australian companies but throw up challenges for others. 1. The global economy is becoming more volatile The …

The latest on Brexit and Italy

The latest on Brexit and Italy   Europe has once again become a source of concern for investors this year, with Brexit and Italy’s new populist government the latest causes of volatility amid fears they could threaten the European Union. But investors need to put those concerns around Italy and Brexit in context. In 2016, a non-compulsory referendum of the British people voted in favour of leaving the EU. Britain is now in the process …