Econosights: Outlook for the US economy in 2021 Key points The US is due for a strong economic recovery in 2021, driven by a large injection of fiscal stimulus. US GDP should have recovered its 2020 COVID losses in the March quarter and be back to its pre-COVID trend level of GDP by end of the year. Fiscal stimulus could overheat the economy in late 2021/early 2022. Consumer inflation expectations are already at multi-year highs. …
Econosights: The impact of Covid-19 on the Australian labour market Key points Most industries are feeling some negative impact from the coronavirus disruption via reduced employee hours, wage cuts, stood down workers or permanent staff reductions. On our estimates, around 41% of jobs are at a high risk of lower work hours, being stood down or terminated. However, the Federal Government’s well designed JobKeeper wage subsidy scheme should see most of these employees kept in …
What we’re watching in our holdings as lockdowns are rolled out Large parts of the Australian economy are shutting down, and we anticipate further draconian measures are on their way. This creates a substantial knock-on effect in consumer behaviour. How companies manage through the weeks and months ahead is imperative for investors to understand. It’s our view that investors with current holdings in Australian shares, or indeed people looking to start or increase their investing …
Econosights: US Election – implications from the Democratic primaries/caucuses and the risks from the Coronavirus Key points The two candidates left in the Democratic nomination race are Joe Biden (a moderate Democrat) and Bernie Sanders (far-left leaning). The risk for markets is a Sanders nomination because of his support for significant tax hikes and regulation. However, large wins for Biden in recent state votes mean that Biden is on track to be the Democratic …
