returns

Five constraints on medium term investment returns

Download PDF version Five constraints on medium term investment returns Key points – Five megatrends suggest higher medium term inflation pressures & lower economic growth than pre-pandemic. – These are: a move away from economic rationalist policies; the reversal of globalisation; rising geopolitical tensions; climate change and decarbonisation; as well as slowing and aging populations. A productivity boost from artificial intelligence should provide some partial offset though. – But taken together this will likely …

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Oliver’s insights – Medium Term Returns

Since 1999 nominal returns have been more constrained averaging 6.2% pa as we entered a lower return world with real returns averaging 3.6% pa. The odds are that returns are likely to be even more constrained over the next 5 to 10 years. This article looks at why.

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Oliver’s insights – rebounding investment returns

The past financial year saw a solid rebound in investment returns, after the negative returns of the 2021-22 financial year. This note reviews the past 12 months in investment markets and looks at the outlook.

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2021-22 saw poor investment returns – the bad news and the good | AMP Capital

2021-22 saw poor investment returns – the bad news and the good Key points 2021-22 was a rough year for investors as high inflation, rising interest rates and recession fears impacted. Shares could still fall further as interest rates continue to rise and recession risks are high. However, inflation pressures are showing some signs of easing which may take pressure off central banks from later this year. Some key things for investors to keep …

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The falls in share markets this year – the bad news and the good | AMP Capital

The falls in share markets this year – the bad news and the good Key points Share markets remain under pressure from high inflation, rising interest rates and bond yields, the war in Ukraine and Chinese Covid lockdowns. It’s still too early to say markets have bottomed. However, it’s not all negative: we may have seen peak inflation in the US, share market earnings are still rising, Covid cases in China appear to be slowing …

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2020-21 saw investment returns rebound – expect more modest but still good returns this financial year | AMP Capital

2020-21 saw investment returns rebound – expect more modest but still good returns this financial year Key points 2020-21 saw investment returns rebound after the coronavirus hit depressed 2019-20 returns. Key lessons for investors from 2020-21 were to: allow that share markets look ahead; timing markets is hard; don’t fight central banks; and turn down the noise. Over the next 12 months returns from a well-diversified portfolio are likely to be slower but still …

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Inflation – why it matters for investment markets | AMP Capital

Inflation – why it matters for investment markets Key points The shift from high inflation to low inflation has been a key tailwind for investment returns over the last 40 years – in particular it has allowed capital growth in excess of growth in earnings and rents. A long-term stabilisation in inflation around central bank targets which is our base case would remove this tailwind but still allow reasonable returns, whereas a sustained break …

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Five charts on investing to keep in mind in rough times like these | AMP Capital

Key points Successful investing can be really difficult in times like the present with immense uncertainty around the impact of coronavirus on the outlook. This makes it all the more important to stay focussed on the basic principles of successful investing. These five charts focus on critical aspects of investing that are insightful in times of market stress: the power of compound interest; don’t get blown off by cyclical swings; the roller coaster of investor …

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Six forces driving Australian equity portfolio returns

Six forces driving Australian equity portfolio returns We are now in the late stage of the business cycle when a range of risks and opportunities are being thrown up at Australian equity investors. These reflect changes in fast-moving global markets, domestic policy choices and the evolving priorities of local businesses. These changes will create exciting opportunities for some Australian companies but throw up challenges for others. 1. The global economy is becoming more volatile The …

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Investment returns over the next five years are likely to slow

Investment returns over the next five years are likely to slow Key points The continuing slide in investment yields across most major asset classes points to a constrained medium-term return outlook. For a diversified mix of assets, this has now fallen to around 6.2% on our projections. The key for investors is to have realistic return expectations; allow that inflation is also low so real returns aren’t down as much; and focus on …