What to watch for the global economy in 2024

Tune in to AMP Chief Economist, Dr Shane Oliver share his insights and projections for the economic year ahead. Original Author: Produced by AMP and published on 28/02/2024 Source

November 2023 Market update

November 2023 Market update    Download PDF version Market update The table below provides details of the movement in average investment returns from various asset classes for the period up to 30 October 2023. Asset class (% change) 1 month 3 months 1 year 3 years (% pa) Australian shares -3.8 -7.2 3.0 8.9 Smaller companies -5.5 -10.5 -5.1 0.5 International shares (unhedged) -1.0 -3.4 11.7 12.0 International shares (hedged) -2.6 -7.9 9.6 9.6 Emerging markets …

Five constraints on medium term investment returns

  Download PDF version Five constraints on medium term investment returns Key points – Five megatrends suggest higher medium term inflation pressures & lower economic growth than pre-pandemic. – These are: a move away from economic rationalist policies; the reversal of globalisation; rising geopolitical tensions; climate change and decarbonisation; as well as slowing and aging populations. A productivity boost from artificial intelligence should provide some partial offset though. – But taken together this will likely …

The threat of higher oil and petrol prices flowing from the war in Israel

Download PDF version The threat of higher oil and petrol prices flowing from the war in Israel Key points – The war in Israel has added to the upside risks to oil prices and downside risks to shares in the near term. – If Iran stays out of the conflict & a major supply disruption is avoided the impact on shares should ultimately be minimal. – If alternatively, oil prices do have a renewed surge …

September cash rate remains unchanged at 4.10% – Financial Partners (TAS)

For the third consecutive month, The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to hold the official cash rate at 4.10%. The decision to maintain the cash rate at 4.10% comes after the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 4.9% in July, down from a peak of 8.4% in…

Insights: Why the need to lift productivity – and why it might be hard

Why the need to lift productivity Download PDF version Insights: Why the need to lift productivity – and why it might be hard Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Key points – The last 20 years have seen a slump in productivity growth in Australia from over 2% pa to less than 1% pa. This has curtailed growth in living standards and real wages. It will adversely affect asset class returns …

Informed Market update: August 2023

August 2023 Download PDF version Market update The table below provides details of the movement in average investment returns from various asset classes for the period up to 31 July 2023. Asset class (% change) 1 month 3 months 1 year 3 years (% pa) Australian shares 2.9 2.0 11.7 12.0 Smaller companies 3.5 0.2 0.8 5.9 International shares (unhedged) 2.1 6.5 17.6 14.0 International shares (hedged) 2.9 8.7 12.7 12.7 Emerging markets (unhedged) 4.9 6.3 …

The confusing economic picture

The confusing economic picture – why you need to know the difference between leading and lagging economic indicators Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Download PDF version Key points For nearly 30 years Australia had benign economic cycles so the current environment may be a bit of a shock for many. Still low unemployment and still high inflation despite slowing economic growth are not that unusual because they both normally lag …

Informed June 2023 Market Update

June 2023 Market update The table below provides details of the movement in average investment returns from various asset classes for the period up to 31 May 2023. Asset class (% change) 1 month 3 months 1 year 3 years (% pa) Australian shares -2.5 -0.9 2.9 11.4 Smaller companies -3.3 -1.3 -5.8 4.5 International shares (unhedged) 1.2 8.4 13.4 11.9 International shares (hedged) -0.2 4.0 3.2 11.7 Emerging markets (unhedged) 0.4 4.4 1.4 4.4 Property …

Sell in May and go away? The worry list for shares (and the good news!

Sell in May and go away? The worry list for shares (and the good news! Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Key points – Shares are vulnerable to a pull back in the months ahead reflecting the rising risk of recession on the back of central bank tightening and weak seasonal influences. – Falling inflation should enable central banks, including the RBA, to start easing from later this year or early …