Oliver’s insights – Australian v global shares
Dr Shane Oliver explains seven reasons why Australian shares are likely to outperform global shares over the medium term
Tag: Likely
Home price falls accelerated in August – three reasons why this property downturn will likely be different | AMP Capital
Home price falls accelerated in August – three reasons why this property downturn will likely be different Key points Australian home prices fell another 1.6% in August and are now down by 3.5% from their high. Rising mortgage rates are the main driver and there is likely more to go. We continue to expect a 15-20% top to bottom fall in home prices out to the second half of next year, followed by a …
Five reasons why the RBA cash rate is likely to peak (or should peak) with a 2 in front of it rather than a 3 (or more) | AMP Capital
Five reasons why the RBA cash rate is likely to peak (or should peak) with a 2 in front of it rather than a 3 (or more) Key points The RBA has hiked the cash rate by another 0.5% taking it to 1.85% and signalling more hikes ahead. We see the cash rate peaking around 2.6% which is at the low end of market and economists’ expectations. Market & consensus expectations for rates to rise …
Why Australian interest rates are likely to rise and when
Why Australian interest rates are likely to rise and when Senior economist Diana Mousina answers our questions on potential interest rate changes and what it could mean for Aussie households. Why have interest rates been so low for so long? The main reason interest rates have been kept so low is the Reserve Bank of Australia undershooting on its inflation target of 2-3%. We haven’t seen underlying or core inflation within that band sustainably since …
Five reasons why the Australian dollar is likely to resume its upswing over the next 12 months | AMP Capital
Five reasons why the Australian dollar is likely to resume its upswing over the next 12 months Key Points Since its February high of around $US0.80 the $A the $A has fallen on the back of global growth concerns, a slowdown in China and the Delta outbreak in Australia. However, there is good reason to expect the $A to resume its rising trend: sentiment towards the $A is negative; global growth is likely to …
The never-ending coronavirus pandemic – why snap lockdowns in Australia make sense until herd immunity is reached | AMP Capital
The never-ending coronavirus pandemic – why snap lockdowns in Australia make sense until herd immunity is reached Key points Snap lockdowns in Sydney, Perth and Queensland are likely to cost the economy $2.5bn, but like previous snap lockdowns are unlikely to derail the recovery. Australia has little choice but to continue with snap lockdowns until increased vaccination sets up herd immunity from around early 2022. The latest lockdowns and ongoing coronavirus threat will keep the …
Inflation Q&A – should we be worried about higher inflation? | AMP Capital
Inflation Q&A – should we be worried about higher inflation? Key points Inflation will likely rise further in the months ahead due to base effects, bottlenecks & reopening but it’s likely to fall back again from later this year as these drivers fade. Shares face short-term correction risks but as inflation settles the broad trend is likely to remain up. Viewed in a very long-term context, we are likely now going through the bottoming of …
Three reasons why the long-term bull market in Australian house prices may be getting close to the end | AMP Capital
Three reasons why the long-term bull market in Australian house prices may be getting close to the end Key points Australian home prices are currently in a cyclical upswing which likely has further to go into 2022. However, the longer-term bull market, that has seen above trend growth in property prices since the mid-1990s, may be close to an end as the long-term decline in interest rates bottoms out, property undersupply swings towards oversupply & …
Why the $A is likely to fall further and shorting it is good protection against things going wrong globally
Why the $A is likely to fall further and shorting it is good protection against things going wrong globally Key points The downtrend in the $A from 2011 likely has more to go. The $A is near fair value, but the increasing negative interest rate gap to the US & a messy outlook for commodities suggest a fall to $US0.70 by year end. Given the downside risks for the $A and that being short the …
Interest rates likely to remain on hold until economic growth improves
11 August 2017 Interest rates likely to remain on hold until economic growth improves There is little chance the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike interest rates in the next six months, even though property prices are at record highs in some markets, according to AMP Capital Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist Shane Oliver. “I can understand why people think maybe they should,” says Oliver. “But I think it’s a 2018 story, not …