Oliver’s insights Episode #77 The Watch List 7 economic indicators for investors to pay attention to AMP’s Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist Dr. Shane Oliver looks at seven key indicators that investors need to keep a close eye on to understand where the investment cycle is going and what shares, in particular, are likely to do. This episode can be found on your favourite streaming platform, including Soundcloud, Spotify and Apple podcasts. For …
Shares sliding again – what’s driving it and is there any light at the end of the tunnel? Key points Share markets remain under pressure from high inflation, rising rates & bond yields and the rising risk of recession and the threat that poses to company profits. With the rising risk of global recession, global and Australian shares are at high risk of further falls in the short term. However, it’s not all negative. Pipeline …
Investment cycles – why investors need to be aware and wary of them Key points Cyclical fluctuations are a key aspect of investment markets. Most are driven by economic developments but are magnified by swings in investor sentiment. Of particular importance are the long-term cycles which are often driven by waves of innovation and the 3-5 year business cycle. Right now, we are still in the downswing phase of the business cycle and may have …
The good news in the plunge in markets – higher medium-term return potential (assuming inflation is tamed) Key points The fall in bond and share values and rise in their investment yields on the back of higher inflation has seen our medium term (5 to 10 year) return projections for a diversified mix of assets rise to around 6.8% p.a. If inflation falls back to around 2.5% pa this suggests reasonable average returns ahead. The …
2021-22 saw poor investment returns – the bad news and the good Key points 2021-22 was a rough year for investors as high inflation, rising interest rates and recession fears impacted. Shares could still fall further as interest rates continue to rise and recession risks are high. However, inflation pressures are showing some signs of easing which may take pressure off central banks from later this year. Some key things for investors to keep …
The plunge in shares & flow on to super – key things for investors to keep in mind during times of market turmoil Key points Share markets have fallen sharply in recent weeks continuing the plunge that started early this year due to worries about inflation, monetary tightening, recession & geopolitical issues including the invasion of Ukraine. It’s still too early to say markets have bottomed. This will weigh on super returns for this financial …
Australia’s new Government – what does it mean for investors? Key points The absence of significant macro policy differences between the new Labor Government and the Coalition suggests minimal impact on the share market & the $A. There could be some short-term uncertainty if Labor has to rely on minority parties or independents, but its looking like Labor will be able to govern in its own right. The key economic challenges for the new Government …
