The RBA starts raising rates – how far and how fast? And what does it mean for investors? Key points The RBA has hiked the cash rate by 0.25% taking it to 0.35% and signalling more rate hikes ahead. We expect the cash rate to rise to 1.5% by year-end and to 2% by mid next year. But the RBA will only raise rates as far as necessary to cool inflation and high household debt …
The 2022 Australian Federal election and investors Key points Australian election campaigns tend to result in a period of uncertainty which have seen weak gains on average for shares followed by a bounce once it’s out of the way. Labor is not offering a significantly different economic policy agenda than the Coalition. With the exception of climate policies, it’s hard to see a significant impact on investment markets from a change in government. A bigger …
Oliver’s Insights – Five big picture implications of the war in Ukraine of relevance for investors – and why are Australian shares holding up better? Key points The situation regarding Ukraine is at high risk of getting worse before it gets better for investment markets. The key is how much Russian energy exports are disrupted & whether NATO forces avoid the conflict. Five big picture implications are likely to be: increased geopolitical tensions; reduced globalisation; …
The US Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates – implications for Australia and investors Key Points The Fed has finally joined other central banks in raising interest rates, taking the Fed Funds rate from a range of 0-0.25% to 0.25-0.5%. This was well flagged and reflects the tight US labour market and high inflation. The Fed flagged another six rate hikes this year and the start of quantitative tightening soon. First rate hikes in a …
Market Update 4 March 2022 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Uncertainty over the war in Ukraine resulted in another volatile week in investment markets as investors worried about the worsening conflict and disruptions to energy supply following the intensification of western sanctions on Russia. Reports of a fire at a Ukrainian nuclear power plant as a result of Russian shelling and the associated risk of a nuclear catastrophe added to the uncertainty. …
5 big picture implications of the war in Ukraine of relevance for investors – and why are Australian shares holding up better? | AMP Capital Key Points The situation regarding Ukraine is at high risk of getting worse before it gets better for investment markets. The key is how much Russian energy exports are disrupted & whether NATO forces avoid the conflict. Five big picture implications are likely to be: increased geopolitical tensions; reduced …
The escalation in Ukraine tensions – implications for investors Key Points Ukraine tensions have escalated with Russia ordering troops into Ukraine regions already occupied by Russian separatists. Share markets are at high risk of more downside on fear of further escalation and uncertainty about sanctions/gas supply to Europe. The history of crisis events shows a short term hit to markets followed by a rebound over 3 to 12 months. Given the difficulty in timing …
US faces stiff headwinds in 2022 What happens to interest rates locally and globally is always important for investors, but particularly so at turning points in the economy. And notwithstanding the recent Omicron outbreak, the world’s most influential central bank, the US Federal Reserve, looks likely to lift interest rates as early as March. It would be the first increase in more than three years and marks a significant turning point in the global economic …
Investment outlook Q&A – inflation, interest rates, Russia & Ukraine, the risk of a share crash, house prices and other issues Key Points Inflation will likely slow later this year but remain well above pre-pandemic levels over the medium term. Wages growth is likely to pick up to 3% this year. A Russian invasion of Ukraine risks a short term hit to shares followed by recovery over the next 3 to 12 mths. Australian home …
Oliver’s Insights – Share market falls – seven things for investors to keep in mind Key points Share markets have fallen in recent weeks on the back of worries about inflation, monetary tightening, the Omicron disruption and the rising risk of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. it’s too early to say markets have bottomed. Key things for investors to bear in mind are that: corrections are healthy and normal; in the absence of a renewed …
