Weekly Market Update 18 January 2019

Weekly Market Update 18 January 2019 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Share markets continued to rise over the last week helped by talk of policy stimulus (notably in China) and optimism of a resolution to the US/China trade dispute. Bond yields rose in the US but were little changed elsewhere, commodity prices including oil rose and the $US rose slightly which saw the $A fall slightly. After a great rally since Christmas …

2019 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook

2019 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook Key points Despite continued volatility, 2019 is likely to be better for diversified investors than 2018 was.   Recession is unlikely and so too is a long and deep bear market in shares.   Watch the US trade war, the Fed, global business conditions indicators, Chinese growth, politics and the Sydney and Melbourne property markets. Introduction 2017 was a great year for well diversified …

Weekly Market Update 11 January 2019

Weekly Market Update 11 January 2019 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Since our last weekly update three weeks ago investment markets have been on a bit of a roller coaster ride, with Santa missing Christmas for markets but arriving the day after. Global shares led by the US continued to plunge into Christmas as the US saw the start of a partial government shutdown taking the decline in the US share market …

Weekly Market Update 21 December 2018

Weekly Market Update 21 December 2018 Investment markets and key developments over the past week The past week saw share markets fall further on the back of ongoing worries about growth not helped by a “not dovish enough” Fed, a lack of new measures to address China’s slowdown in a speech by President Xi Jinping, threats to US/Chinese negotiations, worries about a US government shutdown, a court ruling against America’s Affordable Care Act and problems at …

The Fed and market turmoil – the Fed turns a bit dovish but not enough (yet)

The Fed and market turmoil – the Fed turns a bit dovish but not enough (yet) Key points  The Fed has raised interest rates for the ninth time since first raising rates this cycle three years ago, taking the Fed Funds rate from a range of 2-2.25% to 2.25-2.5% reflecting ongoing confidence in US growth.  However, with US interest rates approaching the “neutral” zone, some interest sensitive sectors slowing, with various headwinds to growth, and …

Weekly Market Update 14 December 2018

Weekly Market Update 14 December 2018 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Share markets were mixed over the last week with nervousness around trade and global growth continuing, not helped by weak Chinese economic data. US, Eurozone and Chinese shares rose but Japanese and Australian shares fell. Despite a rise in material stocks over the last week the Australian share market was particularly dragged down by telcos, consumer staples, utilities and financials – …

Weekly Market Update 7 December 2018

Weekly Market Update 7 December 2018 Investment markets and key developments over the past week The past week has been a roller coaster ride in equity markets. Shares initially rose on the positive outcome from the Trump/Xi meeting. Then they plunged in a panic as investors lost faith in what Trump claimed was agreed, the arrest of a senior Huawei executive in relation to a possible violation of sanctions on Iran raised concerns it will threaten …

Weekly Market Update 30 November 2018

Weekly Market Update 30 November 2018 Investment markets and key developments over the past week US, European and Japanese share markets rose solidly over the last week on increasing signs from the Fed that it is open to pausing or slowing its interest rate increases. Chinese shares rose slightly but Australian shares fell slightly. Weakness in resources, consumer, utility and real estate shares weighed heavily on the Australian share market over the last week offsetting gains …

Volatility: A sleeping giant

Volatility: A sleeping giant Market volatility has been like the Incredible Hulk in 2018; a good-tempered scientist one minute, and a giant raging monster the next. We first saw the scientist turn into the monster during the spectacular February market swoon. What followed were eight months of relative calm in which the mild-mannered scientist returned, luring investors back into the market, and into US equities in particular. But as the monster re-emerged in October, the …

Weekly Market Update 16 November 2018

Weekly Market Update 16 November 2018 Investment markets and key developments over the past week “Risk off” returned with a vengeance to financial markets over the last week with most share market falling and bond yields declining as last month’s worries returned, tech stocks came under renewed and the continuing plunge in the oil price weighed on energy shares. Australian shares have almost fallen back to their October low with financial shares under renewed pressure. Chinese …