Australia slides into a “per capita recession”

Australia slides into a “per capita recession” Key points Australian growth slowed even more in the December quarter. Growth may bounce back a bit this year, but the housing downturn will likely constrain it to around 2- 2.5%.   As a result, unemployment is likely to drift up and wages growth and inflation remain lower for longer.   The RBA is on track to cut rates this year and the housing downturn will likely see …

Five charts and a table that are critical to watch regarding the global economy and markets this year

Five charts and a table that are critical to watch regarding the global economy and markets this year Key points After a strong rebound since December share markets are at risk of a short-term pull back. However, despite this we see this year as being a decent year for share market returns.   Five key global charts to watch as to whether this will be the case are: global business conditions PMIs; global inflation; the …

The Aussie economy in 2019; it’s not boom but it’s not doom either

The Aussie economy in 2019; it’s not boom but it’s not doom either Investors might be confused about the mixed news coming out late last year for the Australian economy and what it means for returns and rates. Economic growth has been okay, and unemployment has fallen to five per cent which is quite low by Australian standards. But we’re also seeing ongoing weakness in house prices. Some say house price falls could be worse …

The Australian economy 2019 – house prices, growth and interest rates

The Australian economy 2019 – house prices, growth and interest rates   Key points Australian growth has slowed again. The housing cycle downturn and its impact on the economy will likely see growth constrained to around 2.5-3%.   LAs a result, spare capacity is likely to remain significant, keeping wages growth and inflation low.   The RBA is likely to cut rates in 2019 and the housing downturn will likely see Australian shares continue to …

Econosights- The US economy – upcoming midterm elections & its impact

Econosights – The US economy – upcoming midterm elections & its impact Key points Upcoming US midterm elections may see the Republican party lose its majority in one or both houses of Congress which could make passing policy changes more difficult for the government. But, policy already passed (including tax reform) will be difficult to reverse.   Impeachment investigations against Trump are likely if Democrats gain a majority in the House, which would lead to …

Boom turns to bust – falling Australian home prices.

Boom turns to bust – falling Australian home prices. How far and for how long and what’s the impact on the economy? Key points Property prices in Sydney and Melbourne are likely to see top to bottom falls of around 20% as credit conditions tighten, supply rises and a negative feedback loop from falling prices risks developing.   Other cities will perform better having not seen the boom of the last few years.   Property …

An update on the US rate rise

An update on the US rate rise   Although we’ve seen declines on Wall Street this week, there’s still strong growth in the US market. The most recent rate hike in the US may have investors concerned that the Fed could threaten markets with even more aggressive hikes. But I don’t think that is likely; I expect the Fed will continue raising interest rates at a gradual pace. The latest 25 basis point rise takes …

Outlook for the Australian economy

Outlook for the Australian economy   Investors might have noted some recent positives in the Australian economy. June quarter GDP growth of 3.4% was above potential and its fastest rate since 2012. We have also seen pretty good jobs numbers, with the unemployment rate trending down and sitting at a six-year low of 5.3%. And job ads, job vacancies and employment surveys have also been solid. (While job vacancies growth slowed to 0.6% in the …

What’s happening in the Chinese economy at the moment?

What’s happening in the Chinese economy at the moment?   Investors should keep a watching brief on the Chinese economy, AMP Capital Investment Strategist, Angus Nicholson says. He warns that key risks include weak credit growth, the US trade war and signs of slowing global growth. “Investors should keep a bit of an eye on China this year. China has been a growing risk factor in many investors’ perceptions at the moment.” But Nicholson says …

Six forces driving Australian equity portfolio returns

Six forces driving Australian equity portfolio returns We are now in the late stage of the business cycle when a range of risks and opportunities are being thrown up at Australian equity investors. These reflect changes in fast-moving global markets, domestic policy choices and the evolving priorities of local businesses. These changes will create exciting opportunities for some Australian companies but throw up challenges for others. 1. The global economy is becoming more volatile The …