As rapid monetary tightening means a high risk of recession continues to persist, growth has generally been more resilient than expected. AMP’s chief economist Dr. Shane Oliver looks at five key reasons for why we could still avoid recession. Important information: This podcast is general in nature and hasn’t taken your circumstances into account. It’s important you consider your personal circumstances and speak to a financial adviser before deciding what’s right for you. Any general …
Econosights: Global growth fears – are we heading into a recession? Key points Global growth is slowing as fiscal and monetary policy are tightening. High inflation means that interest rates will be increased further from here. Recession indicators (an inversion in the US 2/10 year yield curve and the bear market in global shares) are showing increased odds of a recession in the next 12-18 months. We have lowered Australian GDP forecasts and now see …
Five reasons why the Australian dollar is likely to resume its upswing over the next 12 months Key Points Since its February high of around $US0.80 the $A the $A has fallen on the back of global growth concerns, a slowdown in China and the Delta outbreak in Australia. However, there is good reason to expect the $A to resume its rising trend: sentiment towards the $A is negative; global growth is likely to …
Australian GDP slowed in the June quarter & will be hit hard by the lockdowns – but here’s 7 reasons to look beyond the gloom Key Points Australian GDP growth slowed in the June quarter but to a stronger than expected +0.7%qoq. This avoids a technical recession, but the current quarter is likely to see a 4% slump due to the lockdowns. While there is lots of gloom around there remains strong reason for optimism …
The Australian economic recovery remained strong in the March quarter with GDP up 1.8% – seven reasons for optimism Key points With growth of 1.8% in the March quarter, Australian GDP is now back above its pre pandemic level. While uncertainties remain – including around the latest coronavirus outbreak in Victoria – there are seven reasons for optimism that the recovery will continue at a decent rate: vaccines; global growth is ramping up; consumer spending …
Five areas set to benefit from this year’s Federal Budget This year’s Budget saw a big bag of measures announced to get growth accelerating in the Australian economy. Some people and sectors will feel its impacts more than others. Most groups in the Australian community look likely to benefit from this year’s Federal Budget in some way, assuming the measures are enacted (remember, the Budget is not legislation). You can read our detailed analysis of …
Markets craving guidance ahead of August reporting woes For many big corporates, the upcoming earnings season will be the first proper chance for the market to assess the damage of the COVID-19 pandemic. How will markets respond and what could investors do to insulate themselves from the fallout? With the Robin Hood rally running out of steam, swap a sword for a shield For Australian equities, the beginning of the new financial year is likely …
