2019 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook

2019 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook Key points Despite continued volatility, 2019 is likely to be better for diversified investors than 2018 was.   Recession is unlikely and so too is a long and deep bear market in shares.   Watch the US trade war, the Fed, global business conditions indicators, Chinese growth, politics and the Sydney and Melbourne property markets. Introduction 2017 was a great year for well diversified …

The Australian economy 2019 – house prices, growth and interest rates

The Australian economy 2019 – house prices, growth and interest rates   Key points Australian growth has slowed again. The housing cycle downturn and its impact on the economy will likely see growth constrained to around 2.5-3%.   LAs a result, spare capacity is likely to remain significant, keeping wages growth and inflation low.   The RBA is likely to cut rates in 2019 and the housing downturn will likely see Australian shares continue to …

Six forces driving Australian equity portfolio returns

Six forces driving Australian equity portfolio returns We are now in the late stage of the business cycle when a range of risks and opportunities are being thrown up at Australian equity investors. These reflect changes in fast-moving global markets, domestic policy choices and the evolving priorities of local businesses. These changes will create exciting opportunities for some Australian companies but throw up challenges for others. 1. The global economy is becoming more volatile The …

Weekly Market Update 10 August 2018

Weekly Market Update 10 August 2018 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Share markets mostly rose over the last week as economic and profit news was mostly favourable and there was nothing really new on the trade war front. Bond yields generally fell slightly but there wasn’t a lot in it. Commodity prices were mixed with oil down, metals flat to up a bit and iron ore up. The $US pushed higher and …

How are Australia’s states and territories tracking?

How are Australia’s states and territories tracking? An end to the fall in mining investment is helping to stabilise growth in Australia’s mining states and territories (WA, Qld and NT to a lesser extent) while a slowing housing sector is starting to act as a drag on NSW and Vic. Tas is benefitting from a lift in population growth and housing “refugee” demand from Sydney and Melbourne. Growth in SA and the ACT has been …

The Australian economy – five reasons growth will continue but unlikely to be enough to justify rate

The Australian economy – five reasons growth will continue but unlikely to be enough to justify rate Key points The Australian economy grew 2.4% through 2017, good but well below potential given high population growth. There is good reason to expect growth to continue and pick up a bit: the drag from falling mining investment is nearly over, non-mining investment is turning up, public investment is strong, trade should add to growth and profits are …

Interest rates likely to remain on hold until economic growth improves

11 August 2017 Interest rates likely to remain on hold until economic growth improves There is little chance the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike interest rates in the next six months, even though property prices are at record highs in some markets, according to AMP Capital Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist Shane Oliver. “I can understand why people think maybe they should,” says Oliver. “But I think it’s a 2018 story, not …