Episode #98: Australian home prices up on supply shortfall, but at risk from high rates The last three major cyclical upswings in home prices have required lower interest rates to be sustained. With rate cuts still a long way away, AMP’s Chief Economist Shane Oliver looks at why the risk of another leg down in prices is high next year, particularly if unemployment rises significantly, and the key indicators to watch in the months ahead. …
As rapid monetary tightening means a high risk of recession continues to persist, growth has generally been more resilient than expected. AMP’s chief economist Dr. Shane Oliver looks at five key reasons for why we could still avoid recession. Important information: This podcast is general in nature and hasn’t taken your circumstances into account. It’s important you consider your personal circumstances and speak to a financial adviser before deciding what’s right for you. Any general …
Seven key charts for investors to keep an eye on in assessing the investment outlook Key points While we are optimistic on a 12-month horizon, shares are at high risk of further falls and a re-test of their June lows in the short term given hawkish central banks, heightened recession risks and geopolitical risks. Seven key global charts worth keeping an eye on by investors are: global business conditions PMIs; US inflation and our …
Inflation in the 70s – baby boomer fantasy or nightmare? Why central banks must focus on getting inflation back down Key points The high inflation of the 1970s was bad for economies and bad for investment returns. The long-term downtrend in inflation and interest rates is likely over removing a tailwind for investment returns. But a return to sustained 1970’s levels of inflation appears unlikely. Introduction I grew up in the 1970s and it …
Australia’s Achilles’ heel – high household debt and rising interest rates…it’s not as bad as it looks, but it’s still an issue Key points Australian household debt has risen dramatically since the 1980s and is high compared to other countries. The rise is not as bad as it looks because it’s been matched by rising wealth and debt servicing problems are low. However, this will likely change as interest rates rise further & if …
Market Update 12 November Investment markets & key developments Share markets were hit again over the past week as more high inflation readings added to concernsabout monetary tightening. This left US and European shares down for the week and Japanese shares little changed. Chinese shares bucked the trend and rose. While falls in US shares weighed on the Australian share market mid-week a strong rise on Friday left it little changed for the week with strong …
