Oliver’s insights – The RBA leaves rates on hold

The decision by the RBA to leave rates on hold at its December meeting and whether we have reached the top or not. At its December meeting the RBA left rates on hold but retained a tightening bias with still relatively hawkish commentary.

Five constraints on medium term investment returns

  Download PDF version Five constraints on medium term investment returns Key points – Five megatrends suggest higher medium term inflation pressures & lower economic growth than pre-pandemic. – These are: a move away from economic rationalist policies; the reversal of globalisation; rising geopolitical tensions; climate change and decarbonisation; as well as slowing and aging populations. A productivity boost from artificial intelligence should provide some partial offset though. – But taken together this will likely …

Oliver’s insights – seven key charts

Seven key charts worth keeping an eye on remain: global business conditions PMIs; inflation and our Inflation Indicators; unemployment and underemployment; inflation expectations; earnings revisions; the gap between earnings yields and bond yields; and the US dollar.

Inflation in the 70s – baby boomer fantasy or nightmare? Why central banks must focus on getting inflation back down | AMP Capital

Inflation in the 70s – baby boomer fantasy or nightmare? Why central banks must focus on getting inflation back down   Key points The high inflation of the 1970s was bad for economies and bad for investment returns. The long-term downtrend in inflation and interest rates is likely over removing a tailwind for investment returns. But a return to sustained 1970’s levels of inflation appears unlikely. Introduction I grew up in the 1970s and it …

The plunge in shares & flow on to super – key things for investors to keep in mind during times of market turmoil | AMP Capital

The plunge in shares & flow on to super – key things for investors to keep in mind during times of market turmoil Key points Share markets have fallen sharply in recent weeks continuing the plunge that started early this year due to worries about inflation, monetary tightening, recession & geopolitical issues including the invasion of Ukraine. It’s still too early to say markets have bottomed. This will weigh on super returns for this financial …

Could last year’s strong equity returns keep on rolling?

Could last year’s strong equity returns keep on rolling? Aussie battler On the home front, the economic cycle in Australia is less advanced than in other developed economies. Activity remains subdued as housing investment moderates and consumers remain cautious on account of anaemic wages growth. Nonetheless, the preconditions for an improvement in growth are in place. Business confidence has improved and there is evidence of broad-based acceleration in business investment. At the same time, large …

How to create visibility on spending goals in retirement

How to create visibility on spending goals in retirement Retirees looking to develop a sustainable financial plan face a challenging technical problem. So it makes sense to simplify some of the inputs. Those of us who focus on the production of investment returns for retirees’ financial assets often choose to make simple assumptions about consumption patterns in retirement. However a more detailed understanding of priorities for spending in retirement can inform the design of appropriate …

Government pulls back on proposed changes to super

Government pulls back on proposed changes to super The government has announced changes to three key 2016 Federal Budget proposals—the most significant being that it would not go forward with its proposal to introduce a $500,000 lifetime cap on non-concessional (after-tax) super contributions. In a nutshell the new proposals include: From 1 July 2017, the existing annual cap of $180,000 on after-tax super contributions will be reduced to an annual cap of $100,000. The proposed …

Budgeting on a growing family

  Budgeting on a growing family Having children is a rite of passage that brings a mix of joy, fulfilment and anxiety when the financial realities of raising kids become apparent. Parents must make difficult decisions about housing, education and lifestyle to keep the family budget in the black and to give their kids the best start in life. The cost of raising children rose 50 per cent from 2007 to 2012, outpacing growth in …

Be clear on investment goals

Be clear on investment goals by Jeff Rogers Retirees concerned about cuts to the official cash rate need to clearly identify their investment goals to help clarify whether capital stability or income sustainability is of greater importance. In this article, we discuss how a well-managed portfolio of select corporate bonds, equities, property and infrastructure can deliver attractive and predictable income streams that can be expected to rise over time. Sustainable income in a low-rate environment …