Econosights: Three reasons why Australia is more vulnerable to higher rates Key points Australian consumers are more vulnerable to interest rate rises compared to our global peers because of : 1) higher levels of household debt; 2) a higher share of variable rate mortgages and even those on fixed-loans only fix for a relatively short period of time; and 3) a large share of recently fixed mortgages are due to expire in the second half …
2021-22 saw poor investment returns – the bad news and the good Key points 2021-22 was a rough year for investors as high inflation, rising interest rates and recession fears impacted. Shares could still fall further as interest rates continue to rise and recession risks are high. However, inflation pressures are showing some signs of easing which may take pressure off central banks from later this year. Some key things for investors to keep …
Econosights: How are consumers responding to higher interest rates? Key points Consumers are responding to higher interest rates: housing market indicators are slowing (home price declines have accelerated and auction clearance rates are falling), consumer sentiment is weakening and retail spending is slowing. This is the expected consumer response as interest rates rise. The RBA wants to see slowing economic activity to reduce current inflation and inflation expectations. The concern is around too many rate …
The RBA hikes rates again with more to go – but falling confidence and home prices will limit RBA tightening Key points The RBA has hiked the cash rate again – by 0.5% taking it to 0.85% and continues to signal more rate hikes ahead. We expect the cash rate to rise to 1.5-2% by year-end and to peak at 2-2.5% by mid next year. Greater sensitivity to higher interest rates will cap how much …
Investment markets and key developments over the past week It was a turbulent week for markets after the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.5% at its May board meeting. This outcome was expected by the market and economists and the market actually rose from comments by Fed Chair Powell that 0.75% rate rises was “not something that the committee is actively considering” which alleviated fears of an extremely aggressive short-term rate hike profile …
The RBA starts raising rates – how far and how fast? And what does it mean for investors? Key points The RBA has hiked the cash rate by 0.25% taking it to 0.35% and signalling more rate hikes ahead. We expect the cash rate to rise to 1.5% by year-end and to 2% by mid next year. But the RBA will only raise rates as far as necessary to cool inflation and high household debt …
