The rise in bond yields has left shares offering a low risk premium over bonds leaving them at risk of more softness. The conflict in Israel this week has added to the risk, although the threat should be minimal if Iran is not drawn in, avoiding a severe impact on oil supplies. AMP’s chief economist Dr. Shane Oliver looks at the parallels with the run up in bond yields prior to the 1987 crash, current …
US political protests, inflation and rising bond yields Key points US protests are only an issue for investment markets if they significantly impact economic activity. Global and Australian recovery will boost bond yields and there is good reason to believe that (after yet another false ending) the now nearly 40-year super cycle decline in bond yields may be at or close to over. But the end of the bond bull market is likely to be …
Rising bond yields and the end of the super cycle bull market in bonds Key Points It’s normal for bond yields to rise in economic recoveries but it’s looking increasingly likely that the nearly 40-year super cycle decline in bond yields is over. This will remove a key tailwind for investment returns over the decade ahead but as we have seen this year bond yields are unlikely to go up in a straight line. Introduction …
The importance of starting point valuations for investment returns – and where are we now? Key points Starting point valuations – like yields and price to earnings multiples – are a key driver of potential medium term investment returns. For growth assets it’s often more complicated with, eg, the level of interest rates playing a big role. At present valuation starting points for term deposits and bonds suggest low medium-term returns. For shares they …
The bond crash of 2021? Seven things for investors to consider Key points Higher bond yields are normal in economic recovery and should not be a major problem for shares if they are matched by rising earnings. But too rapid a rise in bond yields risks driving a deeper correction in shares. Central banks want higher inflation but will look through any short-term spike. The 40-year downtrend in inflation and bond yields is likely over. …
What happened to all the worries about rising inflation & bond yields? :- Goldilocks, tariffs, Turkey & other things Key points The fear of rising inflation and bond yields that dominated investor thinking earlier this year has faded thanks to a combination of: ongoing relatively benign inflation in the US; Fed hikes remaining gradual; strong earnings growth helping distract share market investors; trade war fears; geopolitical worries around Italy and now Turkey; and finally, slower …
01 February 2018 Higher global inflation and higher bond yields – what’s the risk and implications for other assets? Key points Rising global growth and rising commodity prices indicate the risks to inflation are gradually moving to the upside. This is most acute in the US with the Fed likely to raise rates more than the market expects this year. This supports the view that the 35-year super cycle decline in bond yields is over. …
