Share market volatility – Trump and trade war risks Key points Worries about the Fed, trade wars (the risk of which has been significantly exaggerated) and President Trump generally have increased the risk around the global outlook but are unlikely to drive a major bear market. The key issue is whether the US is about to enter a recession and our assessment remains that a US recession is not imminent. The key for investors is …
Correction time for shares? Key points The US share market is long overdue a decent correction. This now appears to be unfolding and may have further to go as higher inflation, a slightly more aggressive Fed and higher bond yields are factored in. This will impact most share markets including Australian shares. However, in the absence of an aggressive 1994 style back-up in bond yields or a US recession – neither of which we expect …
01 February 2018 Higher global inflation and higher bond yields – what’s the risk and implications for other assets? Key points Rising global growth and rising commodity prices indicate the risks to inflation are gradually moving to the upside. This is most acute in the US with the Fed likely to raise rates more than the market expects this year. This supports the view that the 35-year super cycle decline in bond yields is over. …
The world economy in 2018 – how much longer can the global upturn last? Key points The global economic environment and corporate profits remain in a strong position and economic growth in 2018 will run at its fastest pace since 2011. It’s too early to fear a significant lift in global interest rates. Central banks in Europe and Japan will keep interest rates unchanged in 2018. US rate hikes will continue. Inflation is likely to …
2018 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook Key points 2018 is likely to remain good for diversified investors. The investment cycle still favours growth assets over cash and bonds. But expect more volatile and constrained returns as US inflation starts to turn up. Watch US inflation, bond yields, President Trump, the Italian election, China, the Sydney and Melbourne property markets and global business conditions PMIs. Introduction Although 2017 saw the usual …
Volatility could present buying opportunities in 2018 Volatility and the first meaningful lift in inflation coming from the United States will likely be the main differentiating features in global financial markets in 2018 compared to this year, according to Dr Shane Oliver, AMP Capital’s Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist. The dips in share markets experts anticipated in 2017 are more likely to materialise in the new year, Oliver notes. But with global growth …
13 December 2017 Investors found the “sweet spot” in 2017 It was a good year for share market investors in 2017, particularly for those who overcame the fear of a potential market correction and maintained exposure to global listed markets. Looking back on share market and asset price performance generally, the combination of solid global growth and profits and yet low inflation and benign central banks created a “sweet spot” for investors in 2017. Investment …
13 December 2017 How the yield trade is shaping our view of the world The so called yield trade – which has pushed investors out along the risk curve into more risky assets seeking income – has trained individuals to think more critically about their assets they include in their investment portfolios, reckons Dr Shane Oliver, AMP Capital’s Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist. Since central banks have dropped interest rates to record low …
13 December 2017 Volatility could present buying opportunities in 2018 Volatility and the first meaningful lift in inflation coming from the United States will likely be the main differentiating features in global financial markets in 2018 compared to this year, according to Dr Shane Oliver, AMP Capital’s Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist. The dips in share markets experts anticipated in 2017 are more likely to materialise in the new year, Oliver notes. But …
Do parents make good employees? Research reveals surprising correlations between productivity and parenthood. It’s official: Australia is the most expensive country to live ini. So it’s no wonder that more and more parents are working while raising a family. In fact, recent media reports say Aussie parents work more than parents in other countriesii and 90% of Australian mothers always or often feel rushed or pressed for timeiii. But what’s the impact on the work …
