Download PDF version The threat of higher oil and petrol prices flowing from the war in Israel Key points – The war in Israel has added to the upside risks to oil prices and downside risks to shares in the near term. – If Iran stays out of the conflict & a major supply disruption is avoided the impact on shares should ultimately be minimal. – If alternatively, oil prices do have a renewed surge …
Episode #95: The threat from higher oil and petrol prices Posing many humanitarian consequences, the war between Israel and Hamas could further lead to a surge in oil prices that will add to inflation, keep interest rates higher for longer and add to the risk of recession. AMP’s head of investment strategy and chief economist Dr. Shane Oliver looks at the implications for investors as well as the impact of higher oil prices on the …
Econosights: Three reasons why Australia is more vulnerable to higher rates Key points Australian consumers are more vulnerable to interest rate rises compared to our global peers because of : 1) higher levels of household debt; 2) a higher share of variable rate mortgages and even those on fixed-loans only fix for a relatively short period of time; and 3) a large share of recently fixed mortgages are due to expire in the second half …
The impacts of interest rate hikes on conusmers are well known: higher interest means that mortgage debt servicing costs will go up which is negative for consumer spending. But, rate hikes are also bad news for home prices.. Econosights: Impacts from falling home prices – the wealth effect Key points Declining home prices will have a negative impact on household wealth as 65% of wealth is related to housing. Lower household wealth is negative for …
The good news in the plunge in markets – higher medium-term return potential (assuming inflation is tamed) Key points The fall in bond and share values and rise in their investment yields on the back of higher inflation has seen our medium term (5 to 10 year) return projections for a diversified mix of assets rise to around 6.8% p.a. If inflation falls back to around 2.5% pa this suggests reasonable average returns ahead. The …
Econosights: How are consumers responding to higher interest rates? Key points Consumers are responding to higher interest rates: housing market indicators are slowing (home price declines have accelerated and auction clearance rates are falling), consumer sentiment is weakening and retail spending is slowing. This is the expected consumer response as interest rates rise. The RBA wants to see slowing economic activity to reduce current inflation and inflation expectations. The concern is around too many rate …
Econosights: Implications from Australia’s energy “crisis” Key points Australian electricity and gas price increases will impact most consumers from 1 July 2022. We expect the increase in energy prices to add 1 percentage points to headline inflation. We now see headline inflation peaking at 7% in the September quarter and trimmed mean inflation peaking at 5.5% in the December quarter. There are no changes to our expectations for the cash rate from the lift in …
Jobs and inflation to trigger higher rates? The labour market is strong, with higher employment levels than pre-COVID, a record participation rate and a low unemployment rate of four per cent. Alongside increasing inflation, that’s enough trigger a rise in the official cash rate by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), most likely when the RBA board meets on Tuesday (3 May). The pace of Australian jobs growth slowed last month, but that was …
Australian housing slowdown Q&A – What impact will higher interest rates have? How far will prices fall? Key Points Australian home prices are likely to fall by 10% to 15% into 2024 primarily as a result of poor affordability and rising interest rates. The negative wealth effect from falling home prices should help limit how much the RBA raises rates. A change in Government is unlikely to significantly affect the outlook for home prices, but …
Another energy shock and the threat from higher petrol prices Key Points Oil prices have spiked on the anticipation and now reality of restrictions on Russian oil supply from the war in Ukraine. This is driving a sharp rise in petrol prices which will hit household spending power. Fortunately, there is an offset in Australia from the boost to national income from higher energy prices and commodity prices generally and scope for the Federal Government …
