The trade war is back – what went wrong, what it means for share markets and Australia

The trade war is back – what went wrong, what it means for share markets and Australia   Key points   Consumer expectations of instant gratification are driving down delivery times   Labour shortages and traffic congestion highlight the criticality of well-located logistics facilities The trade war between the US and China has returned after talks to resolve their trade differences broke down. Our base case remains that a deal will be reached to resolve …

Trade war risks are escalating – but a negotiated solution remains most likely

Trade war risks are escalating – but a negotiated solution remains most likely Key Points US actions in recent weeks have increased the risk of a full-blown trade war – primarily between the US and China – with a more significant economic impact. So far the bulk of the tariffs are just proposed so there is still room for a negotiated solution (which remains our base case with a 55% probability). But there is now …

US China trade war fears – Q & A

US China trade war fears – Q & A Key points President Trump’s actions on trade are mainly aimed at achieving better access for US exports to China and better treatment of US intellectual property by China. They are not primarily aimed at traditional US allies, reducing the risk of a global trade war. So far there is only a “phoney trade war” between the US and China as major tariffs are only “proposed”. Signs …

Share market volatility – Trump and trade war risks

Share market volatility – Trump and trade war risks Key points Worries about the Fed, trade wars (the risk of which has been significantly exaggerated) and President Trump generally have increased the risk around the global outlook but are unlikely to drive a major bear market. The key issue is whether the US is about to enter a recession and our assessment remains that a US recession is not imminent. The key for investors is …