The importance of starting point valuations for investment returns – and where are we now? | AMP Capital

The importance of starting point valuations for investment returns – and where are we now?   Key points Starting point valuations – like yields and price to earnings multiples – are a key driver of potential medium term investment returns. For growth assets it’s often more complicated with, eg, the level of interest rates playing a big role. At present valuation starting points for term deposits and bonds suggest low medium-term returns. For shares they …

What we’re watching for as markets try and normalise for the second half of 2020

  What we’re watching for as markets try and normalise for the second half of 2020 We’re past the halfway point of a year that has marked a profound chapter in modern history. This time last year, the events of the last six months would have been unimaginable. This time a few months ago, there was no end in clear sight. Now, it’s hard to believe we’re this far through the year. Realising all this …

Shares climb a “wall of worry” – but is it sustainable? | AMP Capital

Shares climb a “wall of worry” – but is it sustainable? Key points The strong rally in shares since their March lows reflects a combination of economic reopening, signs of recovery, policy stimulus and once pessimistic investors closing underweight or short positions. Shares are vulnerable to a short-term consolidation or pullback. But if we are right, and April was the low in economic conditions, then shares are likely to be higher on a 6 to …

Oliver’s Insights – What signposts can we watch to be confident shares have bottomed?

Introduction After a roughly 35% plunge from their February high point to their lows around 23rd March, global and Australian shares have had a 15-20% rally. What’s more this rally has occurred despite increasingly bleak economic data ranging from plunges in business conditions surveys or PMIs (see the next chart) to a record 10 million surge over two weeks in claims for unemployment payments in the US. Volatility remains very high but at least we …