Oliver’s insights – falling inflation – what does it mean for investors?
has been the dominant driver of investment markets over the last two
years – first depressing shares and bonds in 2022 and then enabling them
to rebound.
Seven key charts for investors to keep an eye on in assessing the investment outlook Key points While we are optimistic on a 12-month horizon, shares are at high risk of further falls and a re-test of their June lows in the short term given hawkish central banks, heightened recession risks and geopolitical risks. Seven key global charts worth keeping an eye on by investors are: global business conditions PMIs; US inflation and our …
Market Update 11 March 2022 Investment markets and key developments over the past week The past week saw a further escalation in sanctions over the war in Ukraine with now energy being targeted resulting in another surge in oil prices and leg down in global share prices before a relief rally kicked in on hopes for a peace deal and increased OPEC production only to see share markets fall again. The gyrations left US, Japanese and …
Inflation Q&A – should we be worried about higher inflation? Key points Inflation will likely rise further in the months ahead due to base effects, bottlenecks & reopening but it’s likely to fall back again from later this year as these drivers fade. Shares face short-term correction risks but as inflation settles the broad trend is likely to remain up. Viewed in a very long-term context, we are likely now going through the bottoming of …
Three reasons why the long-term bull market in Australian house prices may be getting close to the end Key points Australian home prices are currently in a cyclical upswing which likely has further to go into 2022. However, the longer-term bull market, that has seen above trend growth in property prices since the mid-1990s, may be close to an end as the long-term decline in interest rates bottoms out, property undersupply swings towards oversupply & …
Market Update 13 November 2020 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Global share markets rose further over the last week helped by positive news regarding a vaccine for coronavirus but gains were reduced later in the week by rising US coronavirus cases and the threat this posed to the economy with no progress on more fiscal stimulus. Australia shares rose sharply again helped by the positive global lead, a surge in energy stocks …
RBA cuts rates to just 0.1% and ramps up quantitative easing – but will it work? Key points The RBA has cut the cash rate to a record low 0.1% & announced a broad-based quantitative easing program. While the economic boost is likely to be small compared to that provided by the recent Budget, the further reduction in borrowing costs will support household & corporate finances and housing demand as well as keep the $A …
Econosights: The economics of COVID-19 lockdowns Key points Rising COVID-19 cases around the world is leading to questions about the need for another round of government lockdowns to stop the spread of the virus. Lockdowns lead to closed businesses, lower household spending and higher unemployment. But a lot of these outcomes would still occur without a lockdown as households self-regulate their behaviour. Sweden is evidence of this. It has pursued a herd immunity strategy, …