The 2022 Australian Federal election and investors | AMP Capital

The 2022 Australian Federal election and investors Key points Australian election campaigns tend to result in a period of uncertainty which have seen weak gains on average for shares followed by a bounce once it’s out of the way. Labor is not offering a significantly different economic policy agenda than the Coalition. With the exception of climate policies, it’s hard to see a significant impact on investment markets from a change in government. A bigger …

The 2022-23 Australian Budget – a “magic election pudding” of more spending and lower deficits | AMP Capital

The 2022-23 Australian Budget – a “magic election pudding” of more spending and lower deficits Key Points A budget windfall has allowed both more spending and lower budget deficits, with the 2022-23 budget deficit expected to be $80bn (down from $99bn in December). Key measures include “cost of living” payments, a temporary cut to fuel excise, more spending on infrastructure & defence & more help for home buyers. Relying mainly on nominal economic growth to …

Econosights: Europe recession risks– implications from the war in Ukraine | AMP Capital

Econosights: Europe recession risks– implications from the war in Ukraine Key points Eurozone inflation is likely to be well over 6% per annum by mid-year from high commodity prices lifting electricity, gas and petrol costs. This will hit consumer spending. Risks of a Eurozone recession in the first half of 2022 are high. The US should avoid recession for now. The ECB appears too optimistic on the growth outlook despite the conflict in Ukraine which …

Econosights: Four reasons to expect a softer US economy in 2022 | AMP Capital

Econosights: Four reasons to expect a softer US economy in 2022 Key points The US economy is facing numerous headwinds in 2022 which will slow US economic growth. Inflation is too high, interest rates are going to rise, the value of the Fed’s balance sheet will fall and fiscal “thrust” has turned negative. These factors are also leading to a peak in earnings growth. We expect lower equity returns in the US market in 2022 …

US faces stiff headwinds in 2022 | AMP Capital

US faces stiff headwinds in 2022 What happens to interest rates locally and globally is always important for investors, but particularly so at turning points in the economy. And notwithstanding the recent Omicron outbreak, the world’s most influential central bank, the US Federal Reserve, looks likely to lift interest rates as early as March. It would be the first increase in more than three years and marks a significant turning point in the global economic …

2022 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook | AMP Capital

2022 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook Key Points 2021 saw strong investment returns with low volatility. 2022 is likely to see more constrained returns with increased volatility. Watch: coronavirus and vaccines; inflation; the US mid-term elections; China issues; Russian tensions with Ukraine and the west; & the Australian election. Introduction Despite a wall of worry with coronavirus and inflation, 2021 was a great year for diversified investors, with average balanced …

Review of 2021, outlook for 2022 – recovery to continue as we hopefully learn to live with covid | AMP Capital

Review of 2021, outlook for 2022 – recovery to continue as we hopefully learn to live with covid Key Points 2021 was again dominated by the coronavirus pandemic, along with concern about higher inflation and monetary tightening but shares, unlisted assets and balanced growth super funds saw strong returns. Continuing solid economic growth, rising profits and still easy monetary conditions should result in good overall investment returns in 2022, but they are likely to be …

What’s next for the Australian and global economies? | AMP Capital

What’s next for the Australian and global economies?   Quick take-outs 2022 is likely to be the year COVID-19 goes from being an epidemic to endemic Expect ongoing global economic recovery – albeit with bumps along the way The spike in inflation is partly due to pandemic driven distortions to demand and supply chains but inflation will be higher over the years ahead than it was pre-COVID Expect the first RBA rate hike in late …