Why growth in China is unlikely to slow too far and why it needs to save less and spend more

Why growth in China is unlikely to slow too far and why it needs to save less and spend more   Key points China’s economy is slowing but not collapsing as the services sector holds up. A further slowing is likely in the short term, but policy stimulus is likely to see growth improve in the second half, giving 2019 growth of 6.2%.   Concerns about China’s rapid debt growth are overstated given it reflects …

China’s economy is pretty stable – but what about high debt levels and other risks?

China’s economy is pretty stable – but what about high debt levels and other risks? Introduction It seems there is constant hand wringing about the risks around the Chinese economy with the common concerns being around unbalanced growth, debt, the property market, the exchange rate and capital flows and a “hard landing”. This angst is understandable to some degree. Rapid growth as China has seen brings questions about its sustainability. And China is now the …

US China trade war fears – Q & A

US China trade war fears – Q & A Key points President Trump’s actions on trade are mainly aimed at achieving better access for US exports to China and better treatment of US intellectual property by China. They are not primarily aimed at traditional US allies, reducing the risk of a global trade war. So far there is only a “phoney trade war” between the US and China as major tariffs are only “proposed”. Signs …

Share market volatility – Trump and trade war risks

Share market volatility – Trump and trade war risks Key points Worries about the Fed, trade wars (the risk of which has been significantly exaggerated) and President Trump generally have increased the risk around the global outlook but are unlikely to drive a major bear market. The key issue is whether the US is about to enter a recession and our assessment remains that a US recession is not imminent. The key for investors is …

China’s consumers swapping Christian Dior for campuses and kangaroos

China’s consumers swapping Christian Dior for campuses and kangaroos Big-ticket acquisitions of Australian resources, office towers and luxury homes by Chinese corporates and billionaires are grabbing headlines. However, it’s the country’s middle class that is powering a spending shift set to benefit Australia longer term, says AMP Capital Chief Economist and Head of Investment Strategy Shane Oliver. “Chinese consumers are showing signs of shifting their focus from status-linked luxury goods like a Christian Dior handbag …