Share market volatility – Trump and trade war risks

Share market volatility – Trump and trade war risks Key points Worries about the Fed, trade wars (the risk of which has been significantly exaggerated) and President Trump generally have increased the risk around the global outlook but are unlikely to drive a major bear market. The key issue is whether the US is about to enter a recession and our assessment remains that a US recession is not imminent. The key for investors is …

Correction time for shares?

Correction time for shares? Key points The US share market is long overdue a decent correction. This now appears to be unfolding and may have further to go as higher inflation, a slightly more aggressive Fed and higher bond yields are factored in. This will impact most share markets including Australian shares. However, in the absence of an aggressive 1994 style back-up in bond yields or a US recession – neither of which we expect …

2018 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook

2018 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook Key points 2018 is likely to remain good for diversified investors. The investment cycle still favours growth assets over cash and bonds. But expect more volatile and constrained returns as US inflation starts to turn up. Watch US inflation, bond yields, President Trump, the Italian election, China, the Sydney and Melbourne property markets and global business conditions PMIs. Introduction Although 2017 saw the usual …