The trade war is back – what went wrong, what it means for share markets and Australia

The trade war is back – what went wrong, what it means for share markets and Australia   Key points   Consumer expectations of instant gratification are driving down delivery times   Labour shortages and traffic congestion highlight the criticality of well-located logistics facilities The trade war between the US and China has returned after talks to resolve their trade differences broke down. Our base case remains that a deal will be reached to resolve …

Weekly Market Update 27 July 2018

Weekly Market Update 27 July 2018 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Share markets mostly pushed higher over the last week helped by good US earnings news and a US/European trade agreement. This saw solid gains in US and European shares which helped the Australian share market. Chinese shares also benefitted from more stimulus talk. But Japanese shares fell slightly on talk of the Bank of Japan reviewing its monetary stimulus. Bank …

Global trade wars could escalate

Global trade wars could escalate AMP Capital Chief Economist Shane Oliver has warned that the global trade war could escalate, triggering further short-term investment volatility, but will ultimately be resolved through a negotiated settlement. Oliver says the trade war issue is going to be with us for some time to come. “There is a risk here,” he says. “There is continued talk of escalation and retaliation, more tariffs on China potentially, and talk of tariffs …

Trade war risks are escalating – but a negotiated solution remains most likely

Trade war risks are escalating – but a negotiated solution remains most likely Key Points US actions in recent weeks have increased the risk of a full-blown trade war – primarily between the US and China – with a more significant economic impact. So far the bulk of the tariffs are just proposed so there is still room for a negotiated solution (which remains our base case with a 55% probability). But there is now …

US China trade war fears – Q & A

US China trade war fears – Q & A Key points President Trump’s actions on trade are mainly aimed at achieving better access for US exports to China and better treatment of US intellectual property by China. They are not primarily aimed at traditional US allies, reducing the risk of a global trade war. So far there is only a “phoney trade war” between the US and China as major tariffs are only “proposed”. Signs …

Share market volatility – Trump and trade war risks

Share market volatility – Trump and trade war risks Key points Worries about the Fed, trade wars (the risk of which has been significantly exaggerated) and President Trump generally have increased the risk around the global outlook but are unlikely to drive a major bear market. The key issue is whether the US is about to enter a recession and our assessment remains that a US recession is not imminent. The key for investors is …

What’s in Store for Interest Rates, Housing Market and Australian & Global Economies in 2018?

What’s in Store for Interest Rates, Housing Market and Australian & Global Economies in 2018?        Important note: While every care has been taken in the preparation of this document, AMP Capital Investors Limited (ABN 59 001 777 591, AFSL 232497) and AMP Capital Funds Management Limited (ABN 15 159 557 721, AFSL 426455) make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in it including, …

How the yield trade is shaping our view of the world

13 December 2017 How the yield trade is shaping our view of the world The so called yield trade – which has pushed investors out along the risk curve into more risky assets seeking income – has trained individuals to think more critically about their assets they include in their investment portfolios, reckons Dr Shane Oliver, AMP Capital’s Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist. Since central banks have dropped interest rates to record low …

Volatility could present buying opportunities in 2018

13 December 2017 Volatility could present buying opportunities in 2018 Volatility and the first meaningful lift in inflation coming from the United States will likely be the main differentiating features in global financial markets in 2018 compared to this year, according to Dr Shane Oliver, AMP Capital’s Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist. The dips in share markets experts anticipated in 2017 are more likely to materialise in the new year, Oliver notes. But …