Trumponomics and investment markets

Trumponomics and investment markets Key points So far President Trump has been positive for share markets but this year the focus is increasingly shifting to populist policies with greater risk for investors. The key risks to keep an eye on in this regard relate to trade conflict and the expanding US budget deficit, although the latter is more a risk for when the US economy next turns down. However, the best approach for investors in …

Trade war risks are escalating – but a negotiated solution remains most likely

Trade war risks are escalating – but a negotiated solution remains most likely Key Points US actions in recent weeks have increased the risk of a full-blown trade war – primarily between the US and China – with a more significant economic impact. So far the bulk of the tariffs are just proposed so there is still room for a negotiated solution (which remains our base case with a 55% probability). But there is now …