Share market volatility – Trump and trade war risks

Share market volatility – Trump and trade war risks Key points Worries about the Fed, trade wars (the risk of which has been significantly exaggerated) and President Trump generally have increased the risk around the global outlook but are unlikely to drive a major bear market. The key issue is whether the US is about to enter a recession and our assessment remains that a US recession is not imminent. The key for investors is …

Where’s all the share market volatility coming from?

Where’s all the share market volatility coming from? There is quite a lot of talk about volatility coming back to share markets all of a sudden, and with the talk there’s also bit of conjecture about where the volatility originates from. Some say it’s because interest rates and bond yields are beginning to rise; others will point to the end of quantitative easing in the United States and elsewhere for the bumpier ride. The return …

Equities riding on fear not fundamentals

Equities riding on fear not fundamentals “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself,” said Franklin D Roosevelt at his inauguration as US President in 1933. I think “the only thing we have to fear is the fear index itself” is a better description of where investors are at right now. It’s been a wild ride on Wall Street and beyond of the past week – the worst in two years for the …

5 ways to keep a cool head in a falling share market

5 ways to keep a cool head in a falling share market Despite concern, falling share prices are not necessarily a sign of a mild or major bear market situation, according to Dr Shane Oliver. The share market correction many people are talking about at the moment is causing concern for a number of investors, including those accumulating super and drawing money from their super savings, which is understandable given the rapid falls we’ve seen …

The pullback in shares – seven reasons not to be too concerned

09 February 2018 The pullback in shares – seven reasons not to be too concerned Key points The current pullback in shares has been triggered by worries around US inflation, the Fed and rising bond yields but made worse by an unwinding of bets that volatility would continue to fall. We may have seen the worst, but it’s too early to say for sure. However, our view remains that it’s just another correction. Key things …

Correction time for shares?

Correction time for shares? Key points The US share market is long overdue a decent correction. This now appears to be unfolding and may have further to go as higher inflation, a slightly more aggressive Fed and higher bond yields are factored in. This will impact most share markets including Australian shares. However, in the absence of an aggressive 1994 style back-up in bond yields or a US recession – neither of which we expect …

Beware the double-edged sword of US tax reform

Beware the double-edged sword of US tax reform Tax reform in the United States has helped to spur on global economic growth, but investors should be aware of the double-edged sword that comes with the added exuberance, as already expensive share markets continue to edge higher. While company earnings growth in the US – and indeed in Australia – are generally supportive valuations, according to Diana Mousina, AMP Capital’s Senior Economist, the continued strong run …

What a banking Royal Commission means for investors and superannuants

13 December 2017 What a banking Royal Commission means for investors and superannuants A dip in the value of listed financial stocks including Australia’s Big Four banks the day the federal government announced a Royal Commission into the banking, superannuation and financial services industry, could be a sign of things to come for shareholders in the country’s most widely held institutions. The long heralded Royal Commission into the banking industry could have the effect of …

Aussie equities still remain a good long-term bet

11 August 2017 Aussie equities still remain a good long-term bet Australian equities have been getting bad press with some investors warning they are significantly overvalued. The narrative goes that we’re in the midst of a housing bubble that will blow up and take the share market down with it. Like every story there are elements of truth to this, but if you silence the noise and take a long-term view – as most investors …