Are the troubles in Turkey easing? Investors may be eyeing off value in emerging markets after the recent sell-off triggered by concerns about the Turkish economy. Emerging market (EM) shares in local currency terms are down around 14% from their January high, and emerging market currencies are down 16% since their February high. Emerging markets are now trading on a forward PE of around 11 times, making them quite cheap, as are their currencies. …
What’s next for house prices? The bottom line is we see more downside in Australian house prices. That is, of course, a broad generalisation and it depends on where you live. Australian house prices have fallen for ten consecutive months driven mainly by declines in Sydney and Melbourne, which are coming off the back of a huge boom. Nationwide, there is likely more downside to go with expectations of another 5% decline. We’ve seen a …
US reporting season and the tech sector AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver says revenue disappointments and slowing user growth at technology giants Facebook and Twitter is a warning that the US tech sector could at some stage underperform – or even suffer a serious correction. “What those disappointments tell us is there is a limit to the take up of social media,” he says. “At some point it will start to slow down.” …
Is the Australian dollar headed for more downside? AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver says he expects the Australian dollar ($A) to weaken further – making unhedged offshore investments more attractive — as interest rates continue to rise in the US. However solid commodity prices should put a floor under falls. So far this year the $A has fallen from around US$0.80 to around US$0.72. “I think the likelihood is it’s got more downside,” …
Why the $A is likely to fall further and shorting it is good protection against things going wrong globally Key points The downtrend in the $A from 2011 likely has more to go. The $A is near fair value, but the increasing negative interest rate gap to the US & a messy outlook for commodities suggest a fall to $US0.70 by year end. Given the downside risks for the $A and that being short the …
Predictions for reporting season AMP Capital’s chief economist Shane Oliver says listed Australian companies are expected to produce solid overall profit growth in the upcoming reporting season, which will continue to underpin the stock market. But the results will be mixed, with banks, telcos and retailers struggling, and Australia’s profit growth will continue to lag the stellar profit growth of US companies. Oliver says he is looking for 9 per cent overall profit growth from …
Commercial real estate is a unique asset class that acts and performs differently from other investment classes.
Weekly Market Update 13 July 2018 Investment markets and key developments over the past week There was plenty of volatility this week as equities initially got hit following more detail from the US around additional tariffs on Chinese imports. The announcement actually contained nothing new, as Trump said in late June that the US would look to impose an additional 10% tariff on $200 billion of Chinese imports if China was to retaliate against US trade tariffs (which …
EOFY super returns: how have markets fared? The last financial year has been a strong period for super fund portfolios. Equity markets posted solid gains both in Australia and offshore, up 13.7% and 15.4% respectively. Returns were also positive across other asset classes such as direct property and infrastructure, and bond returns, although modest, were much stronger than the previous year. Overall, global growth conditions helped to drive earnings and although the US Fed continued …
How global trends are creating infrastructure opportunities The rise of emerging Asian economies, climate change, technological disruption and the ageing demographic, are among trends creating massive opportunities for investors. Understanding these trends is key to getting involved. The Asian Century The middle class in China has expanded enormously in recent years. As much as 75 percent of China’s population is expected to be classified as middle class in 2022, up from just 4 percent in …
