Oliver’s insights – Donald Trump elected President of the US

The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency brings the prospect of more US tax cuts and deregulation, but also more tariff hikes and trade wars and policy uncertainty.

Oliver’s insights:- Harris versus Trump – implications for investors and Australia

The US election has significant potential to impact markets. A Harris victory would mean more of the same, but a Trump victory could lead to uncertainty particularly around trade.

Oliver’s insights:- China’s big stimulus – will it work? And what does it mean for Australia?

This week’s edition looks at China’s pivot from incremental and modest policy stimulus to providing more aggressive support for its economy.

Weekly market update 23-08-2024

This weekly market update covers the oncoming signals from Fed at Jackson Hole; payrolls revision is not a big deal in the context of other labour market data; RBA still pushing back on rate cut views; Kamala Harris momentum fading; and more.

Why super and growth assets like shares really are long term investments

 Download PDF version Why super and growth assets like shares really are long term investments   Key points – While growth assets like shares go through bouts of short-term underperformance versus bonds and cash, they provide superior long-term returns. So, it makes sense that superannuation has a high exposure to them. – The best approach is to simply recognise that occasional sharp falls in share markets and hence super funds are normal and that investing …

Seven key charts for investors to keep an eye on – where are they now?

 Download PDF version Seven key charts for investors to keep an eye on – where are they now? Key points – Shares have hit a rough patch since recent highs with concerns about the growth outlook. – We remain upbeat on a 12-month view as falling inflation allows rate cuts and hopefully recession is avoided or is mild. But the risk of a further correction in shares is high. – Seven key charts worth watching …

Weekly market update 09-08-2024

This week Dr Shane Oliver discusses the worries about a US recession and how shares remain at high risk of further falls over the next few months, RBA rates on hold and seven reasons why they have peaked and more.

Recession fears and share market falls – what it means for the RBA and investors?

Recession fears and share market falls – what it means for the RBA and investors?  Download PDF version Key points – The risk of recession is high. – The falls in shares and commodity prices reflect this. – Lower growth and recession would mean a high risk of the inflation rate undershooting the RBA’s inflation target. – The RBA should be considering cutting interest rates. – Share market volatility is bad news but the best …

Weekly market update 12-07-2024

Disinflation resumes in the US, RBNZ pivots = positive signs for the RBA; Australian shares hit record, year end forecast revised to 8100; surge in shipping costs less threatening than 3 yrs ago; and more.

The five reasons why the $A is likely to rise further – if recession is avoided

The five reasons why the $A is likely to rise further – if recession is avoided Key points – After a soft patch since 2021, there is good reason to expect the $A to rise into next year: it’s undervalued; interest rate differentials look likely to shift in favour of Australia; sentiment towards the $A is negative; commodities still look to have entered a new super cycle; and Australia is a long way from the …