Weekly market update 23-08-2024

This weekly market update covers the oncoming signals from Fed at Jackson Hole; payrolls revision is not a big deal in the context of other labour market data; RBA still pushing back on rate cut views; Kamala Harris momentum fading; and more.

Econosights – trade war risks with a Trump 2.0 presidency

We recently wrote about the issues surrounding the US election. In this Econosights we look specifically at Trump’s trade policies, which may result in significant downside risk to sharemarkets, in the event of a Trump 2.0 Presidency in 2025.

Oliver’s insights – risks for shares

This edition of Oliver’s Insights looks at the impact of rising bond yields on shares, the risks flowing from the renewed conflict in Israel and comparisons to the run up to the 1987 share crash.

Weekly market update 25-08-2023

This week Dr Shane Oliver discusses correction risks remain high; PMIs point to slower growth; Australian IGR means lower living standards; and more.

Econosights – recession risks

Forecasts of a looming recession in 2023 or early 2024 in major economies have become consensus

Econosights: Australian housing – impacts from the fixed rate mortgage “cliff” and risks to housing construction | AMP Capital

In this Econosights we look at some of the current issues in the housing market, including the the expiration of fixed rate mortgages and the outook for residential construction… Econosights: Australian housing – impacts from the fixed rate mortgage “cliff” and risks to housing construction Key points A large chunk of home loans that have been recently fixed at ultra-low rates will roll onto a variable mortgage rate that is 2-3 times higher. This is …

Econosights: Europe recession risks– implications from the war in Ukraine | AMP Capital

Econosights: Europe recession risks– implications from the war in Ukraine Key points Eurozone inflation is likely to be well over 6% per annum by mid-year from high commodity prices lifting electricity, gas and petrol costs. This will hit consumer spending. Risks of a Eurozone recession in the first half of 2022 are high. The US should avoid recession for now. The ECB appears too optimistic on the growth outlook despite the conflict in Ukraine which …

Econosights: Inflation risks: implications from Russia/Ukraine war and the floods | AMP Capital

Econosights: Inflation risks: implications from Russia/Ukraine war and the floods Key points The Russia/Ukraine war is causing a big rise across many commodity prices including gas, oil, iron ore, coal and wheat. This will flow through to consumer prices. Flooding across the east coast of Australia will also put upward pressure on fruit and vegetable prices. We have revised our inflation forecasts higher to account for these impacts. We expect headline inflation to be just …

Four key risks to consider for a comfortable retirement | AMP Capital

Four key risks to consider for a comfortable retirement Sometimes saving for retirement is the easy part, it’s how to manage risks when one approaches or enters retirement that can be tricky. There are four key risks in retirement – sequencing of returns, lower-than-expected returns, longevity risk and knowing how much a retiree can spend without falling short. There are other critical issues such as living arrangements and the rising cost of healthcare, but the …

AMP Capital Multi-Asset Fund & AMP Capital Core Retirement Fund Webinar | AMP Capital

WEBINARS AMP Capital Multi-Asset Fund & AMP Capital Core Retirement Fund Webinar 13 May, 2020 Whilst all investors face common risks and challenges, the market volatility created from COVID-19 has produced a significant challenge for retirees relying upon investment income for daily living. To help deliver stable income streams and manage drawdowns for retirees in this period, it is increasingly important to have the appropriate risk management strategies in place. Important information While every care …