Trumponomics and investment markets Key points So far President Trump has been positive for share markets but this year the focus is increasingly shifting to populist policies with greater risk for investors. The key risks to keep an eye on in this regard relate to trade conflict and the expanding US budget deficit, although the latter is more a risk for when the US economy next turns down. However, the best approach for investors in …
Trade war risks are escalating – but a negotiated solution remains most likely Key Points US actions in recent weeks have increased the risk of a full-blown trade war – primarily between the US and China – with a more significant economic impact. So far the bulk of the tariffs are just proposed so there is still room for a negotiated solution (which remains our base case with a 55% probability). But there is now …
The many risks of gearing If you are you borrowing money to invest, or considering it, it’s important to ensure you aware of the many risks involved. Gearing, or borrowing money to invest, can be a great way to grow your wealth, but it isn’t for everyone. The aim is to borrow money at a lower rate of interest than the return you will earn by investing that borrowed money – to make a profit. …
China’s economy is pretty stable – but what about high debt levels and other risks? Introduction It seems there is constant hand wringing about the risks around the Chinese economy with the common concerns being around unbalanced growth, debt, the property market, the exchange rate and capital flows and a “hard landing”. This angst is understandable to some degree. Rapid growth as China has seen brings questions about its sustainability. And China is now the …
Econosights – Five Global Risks to Watch The global economic upswing is expected to remain in place for now which is good news for growth assets. But there are still plenty of downside risks to the growth outlook. We explore five key areas we are watching. Introduction We remain positive around the outlook for the global economy over the next year. But there are still numerous downside risks to growth that could cause issues for …
Share market volatility – Trump and trade war risks Key points Worries about the Fed, trade wars (the risk of which has been significantly exaggerated) and President Trump generally have increased the risk around the global outlook but are unlikely to drive a major bear market. The key issue is whether the US is about to enter a recession and our assessment remains that a US recession is not imminent. The key for investors is …
Tariffs, Trump, North Korea and other global political risks in the Year of the Dog Key points Geopolitical issues generate much interest as dinner party conversations but don’t necessarily have a significant impact on markets, apart from a bit of noise. But given a backlash against economic rationalist policies, the falling relative power of the US & the ability of social media to allow us to make our own reality, geopolitical risks are higher than they used to be. Key …
07 September 2017 Passive Investments Have Rewards and Risks Alike Passive investments such as index funds and exchange traded funds (ETFs) provide cheap access to global stockmarkets, but AMP Capital’s Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, Shane Oliver, says they create risks of their own. “Yes there is a positive to passive investing, it gives you the underlying exposure and the fees are low,” Oliver says, adding that “a lot of effort goes into …
