Oliver’s insights:- China’s big stimulus – will it work? And what does it mean for Australia?
This week’s edition looks at China’s pivot from incremental and modest policy stimulus to providing more aggressive support for its economy.
Tag: prices
Sneak peek – Oliver’s insights Podcast: Ep#98
Episode #98: Australian home prices up on supply shortfall, but at risk from high rates The last three major cyclical upswings in home prices have required lower interest rates to be sustained. With rate cuts still a long way away, AMP’s Chief Economist Shane Oliver looks at why the risk of another leg down in prices is high next year, particularly if unemployment rises significantly, and the key indicators to watch in the months ahead. …
The threat of higher oil and petrol prices flowing from the war in Israel
Download PDF version The threat of higher oil and petrol prices flowing from the war in Israel Key points – The war in Israel has added to the upside risks to oil prices and downside risks to shares in the near term. – If Iran stays out of the conflict & a major supply disruption is avoided the impact on shares should ultimately be minimal. – If alternatively, oil prices do have a renewed surge …
Econosights – Australian inflation
Are there better tools available to policymakers than raising interest rates to reduce inflation? Especially as interest rate hikes are having an unequal impact across household groups.
Oliver’s insights – house prices
Dr Shane Oliver looks at the outlook for Australian property prices, particuarly given the bounce in prices over the last month or so.
Home price slump continued in November
The home price slump continued in November, with still more to go
Econosights: Impacts from falling home prices – the wealth effect | AMP Capital
The impacts of interest rate hikes on conusmers are well known: higher interest means that mortgage debt servicing costs will go up which is negative for consumer spending. But, rate hikes are also bad news for home prices.. Econosights: Impacts from falling home prices – the wealth effect Key points Declining home prices will have a negative impact on household wealth as 65% of wealth is related to housing. Lower household wealth is negative for …
Econosights: Implications from Australia’s energy “crisis” | AMP Capital
Econosights: Implications from Australia’s energy “crisis” Key points Australian electricity and gas price increases will impact most consumers from 1 July 2022. We expect the increase in energy prices to add 1 percentage points to headline inflation. We now see headline inflation peaking at 7% in the September quarter and trimmed mean inflation peaking at 5.5% in the December quarter. There are no changes to our expectations for the cash rate from the lift in …
The RBA hikes rates again with more to go – but falling confidence and home prices will limit RBA tightening | AMP Capital
The RBA hikes rates again with more to go – but falling confidence and home prices will limit RBA tightening Key points The RBA has hiked the cash rate again – by 0.5% taking it to 0.85% and continues to signal more rate hikes ahead. We expect the cash rate to rise to 1.5-2% by year-end and to peak at 2-2.5% by mid next year. Greater sensitivity to higher interest rates will cap how much …
National property prices fall for the first time since the pandemic – expect a 10-15% top to bottom fall | AMP Capital
National property prices fall for the first time since the pandemic – expect a 10-15% top to bottom fall Key points Australian home prices fell 0.1% in May, their first decline since the pandemic. The main drivers behind the downturn are: poor affordability with prices up nearly 29% over 21 months; rising mortgage rates; a rotation in spending away from housing; and a decline in home buyer confidence. We continue to expect a 10-15% fall …