Investment cycles – why investors need to be aware and wary of them | AMP Capital

Investment cycles – why investors need to be aware and wary of them Key points Cyclical fluctuations are a key aspect of investment markets. Most are driven by economic developments but are magnified by swings in investor sentiment. Of particular importance are the long-term cycles which are often driven by waves of innovation and the 3-5 year business cycle. Right now, we are still in the downswing phase of the business cycle and may have …

The good news in the plunge in markets – higher medium-term return potential (assuming inflation is tamed) | AMP Capital

The good news in the plunge in markets – higher medium-term return potential (assuming inflation is tamed) Key points The fall in bond and share values and rise in their investment yields on the back of higher inflation has seen our medium term (5 to 10 year) return projections for a diversified mix of assets rise to around 6.8% p.a. If inflation falls back to around 2.5% pa this suggests reasonable average returns ahead. The …

2021-22 saw poor investment returns – the bad news and the good | AMP Capital

2021-22 saw poor investment returns – the bad news and the good   Key points 2021-22 was a rough year for investors as high inflation, rising interest rates and recession fears impacted. Shares could still fall further as interest rates continue to rise and recession risks are high. However, inflation pressures are showing some signs of easing which may take pressure off central banks from later this year. Some key things for investors to keep …

The plunge in shares & flow on to super – key things for investors to keep in mind during times of market turmoil | AMP Capital

The plunge in shares & flow on to super – key things for investors to keep in mind during times of market turmoil Key points Share markets have fallen sharply in recent weeks continuing the plunge that started early this year due to worries about inflation, monetary tightening, recession & geopolitical issues including the invasion of Ukraine. It’s still too early to say markets have bottomed. This will weigh on super returns for this financial …

Australia’s new Government – what does it mean for investors? | AMP Capital

Australia’s new Government – what does it mean for investors? Key points The absence of significant macro policy differences between the new Labor Government and the Coalition suggests minimal impact on the share market & the $A. There could be some short-term uncertainty if Labor has to rely on minority parties or independents, but its looking like Labor will be able to govern in its own right. The key economic challenges for the new Government …

The RBA starts raising rates – how far and how fast? And what does it mean for investors? | AMP Capital

The RBA starts raising rates – how far and how fast? And what does it mean for investors? Key points The RBA has hiked the cash rate by 0.25% taking it to 0.35% and signalling more rate hikes ahead. We expect the cash rate to rise to 1.5% by year-end and to 2% by mid next year. But the RBA will only raise rates as far as necessary to cool inflation and high household debt …

The 2022 Australian Federal election and investors | AMP Capital

The 2022 Australian Federal election and investors Key points Australian election campaigns tend to result in a period of uncertainty which have seen weak gains on average for shares followed by a bounce once it’s out of the way. Labor is not offering a significantly different economic policy agenda than the Coalition. With the exception of climate policies, it’s hard to see a significant impact on investment markets from a change in government. A bigger …

Oliver’s Insights – Five big picture implications of the war in Ukraine of relevance for investors – and why are Australian shares holding up better?

Oliver’s Insights – Five big picture implications of the war in Ukraine of relevance for investors – and why are Australian shares holding up better? Key points The situation regarding Ukraine is at high risk of getting worse before it gets better for investment markets. The key is how much Russian energy exports are disrupted & whether NATO forces avoid the conflict. Five big picture implications are likely to be: increased geopolitical tensions; reduced globalisation; …

The US Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates – implications for Australia and investors | AMP Capital

The US Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates – implications for Australia and investors Key Points The Fed has finally joined other central banks in raising interest rates, taking the Fed Funds rate from a range of 0-0.25% to 0.25-0.5%. This was well flagged and reflects the tight US labour market and high inflation. The Fed flagged another six rate hikes this year and the start of quantitative tightening soon. First rate hikes in a …

Market Update 4 March 2022 | AMP Capital

Market Update 4 March 2022 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Uncertainty over the war in Ukraine resulted in another volatile week in investment markets as investors worried about the worsening conflict and disruptions to energy supply following the intensification of western sanctions on Russia. Reports of a fire at a Ukrainian nuclear power plant as a result of Russian shelling and the associated risk of a nuclear catastrophe added to the uncertainty. …