Tune in to AMP Chief Economist, Dr Shane Oliver share his insights and projections for the economic year ahead. Original Author: Produced by AMP and published on 28/02/2024 Source
Episode #93: The housing market The Australian housing market is a deeply watched sector of the economy, because it impacts everybody. This week AMP’s deputy chief economist Diana Mousina looks more closely at the housing market, including why prices have rebounded so fast, the outlook for home prices, conditions in the lending market and why the rental market is still so hot. Important information: This podcast is general in nature and hasn’t taken your circumstances …
Econosights: China – lockdowns, policy stimulus and regulatory burdens Key points There are reasons to be optimistic on China: lockdowns are easing which will help to abate supply-chain related inflation, policy stimulus measures have significantly ramped up and more can be done and geopolitical tensions have room to improve with the change of government in Australia and potential roll-back of US tariffs before the November mid-term election. Chinese shares have been hit hard in recent …
Econosights: Four reasons to expect a softer US economy in 2022 Key points The US economy is facing numerous headwinds in 2022 which will slow US economic growth. Inflation is too high, interest rates are going to rise, the value of the Fed’s balance sheet will fall and fiscal “thrust” has turned negative. These factors are also leading to a peak in earnings growth. We expect lower equity returns in the US market in 2022 …
Oliver’s Insights – The RBA ends bond buying – but remains “patient” on rates. We expect the first rate hike in August Key points The RBA will end quantitative easing this month. While it now sees unemployment falling below 4% and higher inflation it is prepared to be “patient” for now. We expect rate hikes to commence in August. Ultimately, we see the cash rate rising to around 1.5 to 2% in the years ahead …
The longer-term legacy of coronavirus – nine implications for investors Key points Likely key longer-term implications flowing from the coronavirus pandemic are: bigger government; increased money supply and excess saving; increased geopolitical tensions; reduced globalisation; a faster embrace of technology; a greater focus on lifestyle; and a potential post-pandemic boom. The biggest risk is of significantly higher inflation, reversing the long-term downtrend in interest rates. Introduction The magnitude of the coronavirus shock means it will …
The never-ending coronavirus pandemic – why snap lockdowns in Australia make sense until herd immunity is reached Key points Snap lockdowns in Sydney, Perth and Queensland are likely to cost the economy $2.5bn, but like previous snap lockdowns are unlikely to derail the recovery. Australia has little choice but to continue with snap lockdowns until increased vaccination sets up herd immunity from around early 2022. The latest lockdowns and ongoing coronavirus threat will keep the …
Econosights: The importance of domestic tourism for the Australian economy Key points Domestic tourism is worth more to the Australian economy (at over 4% of GDP) compared to how much international tourists bring into Australia (at 1.3%). And, Australian spending on overseas trips is worth twice the value of international tourist spending within Australia. So, there is potential to offset the loss of activity from international tourism (especially if the borders stay closed through …
