Download PDF version Five constraints on medium term investment returns Key points – Five megatrends suggest higher medium term inflation pressures & lower economic growth than pre-pandemic. – These are: a move away from economic rationalist policies; the reversal of globalisation; rising geopolitical tensions; climate change and decarbonisation; as well as slowing and aging populations. A productivity boost from artificial intelligence should provide some partial offset though. – But taken together this will likely …
2021-22 saw poor investment returns – the bad news and the good Key points 2021-22 was a rough year for investors as high inflation, rising interest rates and recession fears impacted. Shares could still fall further as interest rates continue to rise and recession risks are high. However, inflation pressures are showing some signs of easing which may take pressure off central banks from later this year. Some key things for investors to keep …
The falls in share markets this year – the bad news and the good Key points Share markets remain under pressure from high inflation, rising interest rates and bond yields, the war in Ukraine and Chinese Covid lockdowns. It’s still too early to say markets have bottomed. However, it’s not all negative: we may have seen peak inflation in the US, share market earnings are still rising, Covid cases in China appear to be slowing …
2020-21 saw investment returns rebound – expect more modest but still good returns this financial year Key points 2020-21 saw investment returns rebound after the coronavirus hit depressed 2019-20 returns. Key lessons for investors from 2020-21 were to: allow that share markets look ahead; timing markets is hard; don’t fight central banks; and turn down the noise. Over the next 12 months returns from a well-diversified portfolio are likely to be slower but still …
Inflation – why it matters for investment markets Key points The shift from high inflation to low inflation has been a key tailwind for investment returns over the last 40 years – in particular it has allowed capital growth in excess of growth in earnings and rents. A long-term stabilisation in inflation around central bank targets which is our base case would remove this tailwind but still allow reasonable returns, whereas a sustained break …
Key points Successful investing can be really difficult in times like the present with immense uncertainty around the impact of coronavirus on the outlook. This makes it all the more important to stay focussed on the basic principles of successful investing. These five charts focus on critical aspects of investing that are insightful in times of market stress: the power of compound interest; don’t get blown off by cyclical swings; the roller coaster of investor …
Six forces driving Australian equity portfolio returns We are now in the late stage of the business cycle when a range of risks and opportunities are being thrown up at Australian equity investors. These reflect changes in fast-moving global markets, domestic policy choices and the evolving priorities of local businesses. These changes will create exciting opportunities for some Australian companies but throw up challenges for others. 1. The global economy is becoming more volatile The …
