Tag: Recession

Econosights: Global growth fears – are we heading into a recession? | AMP Capital

Econosights: Global growth fears – are we heading into a recession? Key points Global growth is slowing as fiscal and monetary policy are tightening. High inflation means that interest rates will be increased further from here. Recession indicators (an inversion in the US 2/10 year yield curve and the bear market in global shares) are showing increased odds of a recession in the next 12-18 months. We have lowered Australian GDP forecasts and now see …

Blog / E - Economics / E - ESG Wrap (Econosights) / E - Insights Papers / E - Market Update / FP - Financial Planning   / / / / / / / / / / / / / /

Econosights: Europe recession risks– implications from the war in Ukraine | AMP Capital

Econosights: Europe recession risks– implications from the war in Ukraine Key points Eurozone inflation is likely to be well over 6% per annum by mid-year from high commodity prices lifting electricity, gas and petrol costs. This will hit consumer spending. Risks of a Eurozone recession in the first half of 2022 are high. The US should avoid recession for now. The ECB appears too optimistic on the growth outlook despite the conflict in Ukraine which …

Blog / E - Economics / E - ESG Wrap (Econosights) / E - Insights Papers / E - Market Update / FP - Financial Planning   / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /

Joe Biden on track to become US president – implications for investors and Australia

Joe Biden on track to become US president – implications for investors and Australia   Key points The US election has been close and final counting as well as legal challenges could still upset the result, but the now highly likely outcome is a Biden Presidency. While there is a possibility that the Democrats could win control of the Senate via runoff elections in Georgia, the most likely outcome is that Democrats will retain control …

Blog / E - Economics / E - Insights Papers / E - Market Update / E - Oliver's Insights / FP - Financial Planning   / / / / / / / / /

My take on life in Australia during a recession | AMP Capital

My take on life in Australia during a recession Going into a recession is bad news. When the economy goes backwards, spending contracts, the jobs market gets tougher, wages go down – the list goes on. This period ahead has come as a shock to many Australians, but there are some things worth noting that might make it easier to bear. Australia has been battling through a calamitous start to 2020 so far. We kicked …

Blog / E - Economics / E - Insights Papers / E - Market Update / E - Oliver's Insights / FP - Financial Planning   / / / / / / / / /

After the Bell: daily market update, June 3 | AMP Capital

ECONOMICS & MARKETS After the Bell: daily market update, June 3 03 Jun, 2020 It was a historic day for Australia today, as the nation entered its first recession in 29 years. Our senior economist, Diana Mousina, explains how markets fared, and also commented on recent strengths in the Aussie dollar. Important information While every care has been taken in the preparation of this video, AMP Capital Investors Limited (ABN 59 001 777 591, AFSL …

Blog / E - Economics / E - Insights Papers / E - Market Update / E - Oliver's Insights / FP - Financial Planning   / / / / / / / / /

What Australia’s recession will look and feel like | AMP Capital

What Australia’s recession will look and feel like A great proportion of the working population have never known a recession in Australia, and others will be haunted by the last in the early 1990s. This time around, I think Australia is in for a different experience to what we’ve seen and known before – and that’s not entirely a bad thing. The Australian government has, rightly, sacrificed economic activity in the name of health in …

Blog / E - Economics / E - Insights Papers / E - Market Update / E - Oliver's Insights / FP - Financial Planning   / / / / / / / / /

The US economy – does the flattening yield curve indicate recession is imminent?

The US economy – does the flattening yield curve indicate recession is imminent? Key points If you are worried about a major bear market, the US economy is the key to watch. While traditional measures of the US yield curve have flattened sending warning signs about future growth, it has given false signals in the past, is still positive and other versions of the yield curve point to rising growth. Moreover, apart from very low …

Blog / E - Economics / E - Oliver's Insights   / / / / / / / / / / / / /

Share market volatility – Trump and trade war risks

Share market volatility – Trump and trade war risks Key points Worries about the Fed, trade wars (the risk of which has been significantly exaggerated) and President Trump generally have increased the risk around the global outlook but are unlikely to drive a major bear market. The key issue is whether the US is about to enter a recession and our assessment remains that a US recession is not imminent. The key for investors is …

Blog / E - Economics / E - Oliver's Insights   / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /

Where are we in the unlisted commercial property cycle?

Where are we in the unlisted commercial property cycle? Key points Australian unlisted commercial property returns have been very strong this decade thanks largely to the “search for attractive yield” by investors. This return driver is expected to start to fade but rising rents, particularly in the south-east office markets, will provide an offset keeping returns solid for now. Commercial property yields still offer a strong premium relative to bonds suggesting we are a long …

Blog / E - Economics / E - Financial Snapshot / E - Market Update / E - Oliver's Insights / FP - Property & Real Estate   / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /

The “gradually” maturing investment cycle – what is the risk of a US recession?

The “gradually” maturing investment cycle – what is the risk of a US recession? Key points With inflationary pressures starting to rise in the US the global investment cycle is starting to get more mature. This is likely to mean a further rise in bond yields and more share market volatility. However, there is still little sign of the sort of excesses that precede economic downturns, profit slumps and major bear markets suggesting that we …

Blog / E - Oliver's Insights   / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /