Download PDF version Seven key charts for investors to keep an eye on – where are they now? Key points – Shares have hit a rough patch since recent highs with concerns about the growth outlook. – We remain upbeat on a 12-month view as falling inflation allows rate cuts and hopefully recession is avoided or is mild. But the risk of a further correction in shares is high. – Seven key charts worth watching …
Recession fears and share market falls – what it means for the RBA and investors? Download PDF version Key points – The risk of recession is high. – The falls in shares and commodity prices reflect this. – Lower growth and recession would mean a high risk of the inflation rate undershooting the RBA’s inflation target. – The RBA should be considering cutting interest rates. – Share market volatility is bad news but the best …
The five reasons why the $A is likely to rise further – if recession is avoided Key points – After a soft patch since 2021, there is good reason to expect the $A to rise into next year: it’s undervalued; interest rate differentials look likely to shift in favour of Australia; sentiment towards the $A is negative; commodities still look to have entered a new super cycle; and Australia is a long way from the …
Why the need to lift productivity Download PDF version Insights: Why the need to lift productivity – and why it might be hard Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Key points – The last 20 years have seen a slump in productivity growth in Australia from over 2% pa to less than 1% pa. This has curtailed growth in living standards and real wages. It will adversely affect asset class returns …
Correction time? Shares get the wobblies – seven things investors need to keep in mind Key Points Share markets have hit the wobbles lately on the back of a long worry list ranging from growth concerns, central bank tapering, the US debt ceiling and fears of about China Evergrande’s problems. Shares may still have more downside as it will take a while to resolve some of these issues. Key things for investors to bear in …
Shane Oliver joins Simplifying Super podcast to share his top five investment mantras AMP Capital’s Head of Investment Strategy and Economics, and Chief Economist, Dr Shane Oliver shares his top five investment mantras in the latest episode of AMP’s Simplifying Super* podcast. At the top of the list is make the most of the power of compound interest, which Dr Oliver says can lead to exponential growth in returns over time. “The way to make …
Econosights: Australian economic policy beyond COVID-19 Key points The post-pandemic economic rebound is strong in Australia. But, after the initial bounce in activity, there is a need to reinvigorate the drivers of long-run economic growth. Productivity growth has been low in Australia and needs to lift to see a rise in incomes and living standards. Higher productivity growth is achieved through economic reform. Areas in Australia that deserve policy attention include: lifting household incomes …
Econosights: Outlook for the US economy in 2021 Key points The US is due for a strong economic recovery in 2021, driven by a large injection of fiscal stimulus. US GDP should have recovered its 2020 COVID losses in the March quarter and be back to its pre-COVID trend level of GDP by end of the year. Fiscal stimulus could overheat the economy in late 2021/early 2022. Consumer inflation expectations are already at multi-year highs. …
Econosights: The economics of COVID-19 lockdowns Key points Rising COVID-19 cases around the world is leading to questions about the need for another round of government lockdowns to stop the spread of the virus. Lockdowns lead to closed businesses, lower household spending and higher unemployment. But a lot of these outcomes would still occur without a lockdown as households self-regulate their behaviour. Sweden is evidence of this. It has pursued a herd immunity strategy, …
How is the Kiwi dollar faring? Investors have been watching the Australian dollar weaken since January, but they may not be aware that the currency of our near neighbour New Zealand has also been under pressure, with further weakening likely. The New Zealand dollar has fallen as the Fed continues to raise rates in the US and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced an unexpectedly dovish policy stance. In its August monetary statement, …
