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Home price falls accelerated in August – three reasons why this property downturn will likely be different | AMP Capital

Home price falls accelerated in August – three reasons why this property downturn will likely be different Key points Australian home prices fell another 1.6% in August and are now down by 3.5% from their high. Rising mortgage rates are the main driver and there is likely more to go. We continue to expect a 15-20% top to bottom fall in home prices out to the second half of next year, followed by a …

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Econosights: Is the Bank of England’s recession forecast a warning for other central banks? | AMP Capital

Econosights: Is the Bank of England’s recession forecast a warning for other central banks? Key points The Bank of England’s latest forecasts assume a bleak outlook for the UK over 2022/23 with inflation peaking at 13%, a decline in GDP growth of more than 2% and a recession lasting over a year. Australia and the US are facing some similarities to the UK economy, but the energy crisis in both countries is less severe. …

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Econosights: What are inflation expectations telling us? | AMP Capital

Econosights: What are inflation expectations telling us? Key points An increase in short-term consumer inflation expectations reflects the current high inflation environment. While consumers are assuming that inflation will remain elevated at its current level for the next 1-2 years, this is unlikely as forward-looking inflation indicators have been falling for months. Australian medium-term inflation expectations remain well anchored which indicates that the market believes in the RBA’s 2-3% inflation target and does not …

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The good news in the plunge in markets – higher medium-term return potential (assuming inflation is tamed) | AMP Capital

The good news in the plunge in markets – higher medium-term return potential (assuming inflation is tamed) Key points The fall in bond and share values and rise in their investment yields on the back of higher inflation has seen our medium term (5 to 10 year) return projections for a diversified mix of assets rise to around 6.8% p.a. If inflation falls back to around 2.5% pa this suggests reasonable average returns ahead. The …

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Market Update 22 July 2022 | AMP Capital

Market Update 22 July 2022 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Global sharemarkets have rallied again this week with US up 3.5%, Australia 2.9%, Europe 3.4%, Japan 3.8% while Chinese stocks are down by 0.3%. Positive gains in most sharemarkets recently after weeks of declines is leading to questions about whether we have seen the low in markets. Our view has not changed – we think the risk is of more downside …

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Econosights: Australian housing – impacts from the fixed rate mortgage “cliff” and risks to housing construction | AMP Capital

In this Econosights we look at some of the current issues in the housing market, including the the expiration of fixed rate mortgages and the outook for residential construction… Econosights: Australian housing – impacts from the fixed rate mortgage “cliff” and risks to housing construction Key points A large chunk of home loans that have been recently fixed at ultra-low rates will roll onto a variable mortgage rate that is 2-3 times higher. This is …

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Market Update 10 June 2022 | AMP Capital

Market Update 10 June 2022 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Sharemarkets came under renewed downward pressure this week (after a few weeks of rallying). Themes of stagflation risks, heightened recession odds, hawkish central banks and questions as to whether inflation has peaked or not continue to be the main drivers of markets. US shares were down by 2.2% with the tech-heavy Nasdaq down by a similar am. Australian shares are 4% …

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The falls in share markets this year – the bad news and the good | AMP Capital

The falls in share markets this year – the bad news and the good Key points Share markets remain under pressure from high inflation, rising interest rates and bond yields, the war in Ukraine and Chinese Covid lockdowns. It’s still too early to say markets have bottomed. However, it’s not all negative: we may have seen peak inflation in the US, share market earnings are still rising, Covid cases in China appear to be slowing …

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Five great charts on investing that are particularly useful in times of uncertainty like the present | AMP Capital

Five great charts on investing that are particularly useful in times of uncertainty like the present Key Points Successful investing can be very difficult in times like the present with immense uncertainty around inflation, interest rates, war in Ukraine & continuing covid waves. This makes it all the more important to stay focused on the basic principles of successful investing. These five great charts help illuminate key aspects of investing: the power of compound interest; …

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Econosights: Four reasons to expect a softer US economy in 2022 | AMP Capital

Econosights: Four reasons to expect a softer US economy in 2022 Key points The US economy is facing numerous headwinds in 2022 which will slow US economic growth. Inflation is too high, interest rates are going to rise, the value of the Fed’s balance sheet will fall and fiscal “thrust” has turned negative. These factors are also leading to a peak in earnings growth. We expect lower equity returns in the US market in 2022 …