The Australian economy 2019 – house prices, growth and interest rates

The Australian economy 2019 – house prices, growth and interest rates   Key points Australian growth has slowed again. The housing cycle downturn and its impact on the economy will likely see growth constrained to around 2.5-3%.   LAs a result, spare capacity is likely to remain significant, keeping wages growth and inflation low.   The RBA is likely to cut rates in 2019 and the housing downturn will likely see Australian shares continue to …

Weekly Market Update 7 December 2018

Weekly Market Update 7 December 2018 Investment markets and key developments over the past week The past week has been a roller coaster ride in equity markets. Shares initially rose on the positive outcome from the Trump/Xi meeting. Then they plunged in a panic as investors lost faith in what Trump claimed was agreed, the arrest of a senior Huawei executive in relation to a possible violation of sanctions on Iran raised concerns it will threaten …

Review of 2018, outlook for 2019 – another cycle extension

Review of 2018, outlook for 2019 – another cycle extension Key points 2018 saw reasonable global economic and profit growth and still low interest rates but it has been a rough year for investors with worries about the Fed, trade wars and global growth causing volatility and poor returns.   2019 is unlikely to see the plunge into recession many fear with growth likely to stabilise supporting profit growth, the Fed is likely to undertake …

Proposed changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax hit house prices

Proposed changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax hit house prices Australia’s house prices have fallen for 13 consecutive months, with average Australian capital city prices now down 4% from their peak. The once booming cities of Sydney and Melbourne have led the falls over the last year; while falls in Perth and Darwin, which started several years ago as the mining investment boom ended, have continued. Bucking the national trend, prices in Brisbane …

Weekly Market Update 30 November 2018

Weekly Market Update 30 November 2018 Investment markets and key developments over the past week US, European and Japanese share markets rose solidly over the last week on increasing signs from the Fed that it is open to pausing or slowing its interest rate increases. Chinese shares rose slightly but Australian shares fell slightly. Weakness in resources, consumer, utility and real estate shares weighed heavily on the Australian share market over the last week offsetting gains …

Corrections, gummy bears and grizzly bears in shares

Corrections, gummy bears and grizzly bears in shares Key points The pullback in shares could still have further to go but a deep (grizzly) bear market is unlikely as US, global or Australian recession are unlikely. Increasing US Federal Reserve openness to a pause in raising rates, the likelihood of a US/China trade deal sometime in the next six months and the plunge in oil prices all add to confidence that a grizzly bear market …

Volatility: A sleeping giant

Volatility: A sleeping giant Market volatility has been like the Incredible Hulk in 2018; a good-tempered scientist one minute, and a giant raging monster the next. We first saw the scientist turn into the monster during the spectacular February market swoon. What followed were eight months of relative calm in which the mild-mannered scientist returned, luring investors back into the market, and into US equities in particular. But as the monster re-emerged in October, the …

Weekly Market Update 16 November 2018

Weekly Market Update 16 November 2018 Investment markets and key developments over the past week “Risk off” returned with a vengeance to financial markets over the last week with most share market falling and bond yields declining as last month’s worries returned, tech stocks came under renewed and the continuing plunge in the oil price weighed on energy shares. Australian shares have almost fallen back to their October low with financial shares under renewed pressure. Chinese …

13 commonsense tips to help manage your finances

13 commonsense tips to help manage your finances   Key points Getting your personal finances right can be a challenge. Here are 13 tips that may be of use: shop around when it comes to financial services; don’t take on too much debt; allow that interest rates can go up as well as down; allow for rainy days; credit cards are great but they deserve respect; use your mortgage (if you can) for all longer …

Weekly Market Update 09 November 2018

Weekly Market Update 09 November 2018 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Share markets mostly rose over the last week, helped in particular by a favourable reaction to the US midterm elections. Chinese shares remained under pressure though. Bond yields continued to rise reflecting the “risk on” tone from investors and as the Fed showed no signs of pausing its rate hikes. Commodity prices were mixed though with oil falling further and metal …