E – Oliver’s Insights

Five constraints on medium term investment returns

Download PDF version Five constraints on medium term investment returns Key points – Five megatrends suggest higher medium term inflation pressures & lower economic growth than pre-pandemic. – These are: a move away from economic rationalist policies; the reversal of globalisation; rising geopolitical tensions; climate change and decarbonisation; as well as slowing and aging populations. A productivity boost from artificial intelligence should provide some partial offset though. – But taken together this will likely …

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The threat of higher oil and petrol prices flowing from the war in Israel

Download PDF version The threat of higher oil and petrol prices flowing from the war in Israel Key points – The war in Israel has added to the upside risks to oil prices and downside risks to shares in the near term. – If Iran stays out of the conflict & a major supply disruption is avoided the impact on shares should ultimately be minimal. – If alternatively, oil prices do have a renewed surge …

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Oliver’s insights – Medium Term Returns

Since 1999 nominal returns have been more constrained averaging 6.2% pa as we entered a lower return world with real returns averaging 3.6% pa. The odds are that returns are likely to be even more constrained over the next 5 to 10 years. This article looks at why.

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Econosights – geopolitics

Geopolitical events tend to create volatility in financial markets and as a result, investors have become more interested in geopolitical risks over the past few years. We look at the impact of geopolitics on financial markets in this edition of Econosights.

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Weekly market update 20-10-2023

The new highs in bond yields are putting increasing pressure on share market valuations; the conflict in Israel presents a dilemma for central banks; the high risk of another RBA rate hike, which will add to recession risk; and more.

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Oliver’s insights Podcast: Ep#95

Episode #95: The threat from higher oil and petrol prices Posing many humanitarian consequences, the war between Israel and Hamas could further lead to a surge in oil prices that will add to inflation, keep interest rates higher for longer and add to the risk of recession. AMP’s head of investment strategy and chief economist Dr. Shane Oliver looks at the implications for investors as well as the impact of higher oil prices on the …

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Bonds are Back

In this AMP Investments webinar, hear from Diana Mousina, Deputy Chief Economist, give an overview of the current macro-economic backdrop, followed by Chris Baker, Portfolio Manager, who provides a deep dive on the current fixed income environment.

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Oliver’s insights – oil and petrol prices

The war in Israel is terrible from a humanitarian perspective. From an economic and investment perspective the concern is that it will lead to a surge in oil prices that will add to inflation, keep interest rates higher for longer and add to the risk of recession.

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Econosights – wages breakout

Australia’s labour market has held up better than expected, despite the biggest interest rate hiking cycle since the late 1980s. Recently released data on newly lodged Enterprise Bargaining Agreements are showing a spike in wages growth which are increasing concerns that a wages breakout will threaten the inflation outlook.

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Weekly market update 13-10-2023

This week Dr Shane Oliver analyses where we have seen the bottom in shares; US September inflation will keep the Fed on edge; the impacts of the Israeli war & petrol prices; upside wage growth risks in Australia; and more.