Weekly Market Update 11 January 2019

Weekly Market Update 11 January 2019 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Since our last weekly update three weeks ago investment markets have been on a bit of a roller coaster ride, with Santa missing Christmas for markets but arriving the day after. Global shares led by the US continued to plunge into Christmas as the US saw the start of a partial government shutdown taking the decline in the US share market …

The Aussie economy in 2019; it’s not boom but it’s not doom either

The Aussie economy in 2019; it’s not boom but it’s not doom either Investors might be confused about the mixed news coming out late last year for the Australian economy and what it means for returns and rates. Economic growth has been okay, and unemployment has fallen to five per cent which is quite low by Australian standards. But we’re also seeing ongoing weakness in house prices. Some say house price falls could be worse …

Weekly Market Update 21 December 2018

Weekly Market Update 21 December 2018 Investment markets and key developments over the past week The past week saw share markets fall further on the back of ongoing worries about growth not helped by a “not dovish enough” Fed, a lack of new measures to address China’s slowdown in a speech by President Xi Jinping, threats to US/Chinese negotiations, worries about a US government shutdown, a court ruling against America’s Affordable Care Act and problems at …

The Fed and market turmoil – the Fed turns a bit dovish but not enough (yet)

The Fed and market turmoil – the Fed turns a bit dovish but not enough (yet) Key points  The Fed has raised interest rates for the ninth time since first raising rates this cycle three years ago, taking the Fed Funds rate from a range of 2-2.25% to 2.25-2.5% reflecting ongoing confidence in US growth.  However, with US interest rates approaching the “neutral” zone, some interest sensitive sectors slowing, with various headwinds to growth, and …

Weekly Market Update 14 December 2018

Weekly Market Update 14 December 2018 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Share markets were mixed over the last week with nervousness around trade and global growth continuing, not helped by weak Chinese economic data. US, Eurozone and Chinese shares rose but Japanese and Australian shares fell. Despite a rise in material stocks over the last week the Australian share market was particularly dragged down by telcos, consumer staples, utilities and financials – …

Four reasons the global economic outlook for 2019 looks positive

Four reasons the global economic outlook for 2019 looks positive Many investors have been rattled by falls in share markets and are fretting about what the new year may hold. But there are a number of reasons to suggest that after a weak 2018, 2019 will be better, and that a well-diversified portfolio should deliver reasonable returns. 1. This is a “mid-cycle” correction Firstly, while some investors fear a recession and full-blown bear market, when …

The Australian economy 2019 – house prices, growth and interest rates

The Australian economy 2019 – house prices, growth and interest rates   Key points Australian growth has slowed again. The housing cycle downturn and its impact on the economy will likely see growth constrained to around 2.5-3%.   LAs a result, spare capacity is likely to remain significant, keeping wages growth and inflation low.   The RBA is likely to cut rates in 2019 and the housing downturn will likely see Australian shares continue to …

Weekly Market Update 7 December 2018

Weekly Market Update 7 December 2018 Investment markets and key developments over the past week The past week has been a roller coaster ride in equity markets. Shares initially rose on the positive outcome from the Trump/Xi meeting. Then they plunged in a panic as investors lost faith in what Trump claimed was agreed, the arrest of a senior Huawei executive in relation to a possible violation of sanctions on Iran raised concerns it will threaten …

Review of 2018, outlook for 2019 – another cycle extension

Review of 2018, outlook for 2019 – another cycle extension Key points 2018 saw reasonable global economic and profit growth and still low interest rates but it has been a rough year for investors with worries about the Fed, trade wars and global growth causing volatility and poor returns.   2019 is unlikely to see the plunge into recession many fear with growth likely to stabilise supporting profit growth, the Fed is likely to undertake …

Proposed changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax hit house prices

Proposed changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax hit house prices Australia’s house prices have fallen for 13 consecutive months, with average Australian capital city prices now down 4% from their peak. The once booming cities of Sydney and Melbourne have led the falls over the last year; while falls in Perth and Darwin, which started several years ago as the mining investment boom ended, have continued. Bucking the national trend, prices in Brisbane …