Weekly Market Update 18 January 2019

Weekly Market Update 18 January 2019 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Share markets continued to rise over the last week helped by talk of policy stimulus (notably in China) and optimism of a resolution to the US/China trade dispute. Bond yields rose in the US but were little changed elsewhere, commodity prices including oil rose and the $US rose slightly which saw the $A fall slightly. After a great rally since Christmas …

2019 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook

2019 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook Key points Despite continued volatility, 2019 is likely to be better for diversified investors than 2018 was.   Recession is unlikely and so too is a long and deep bear market in shares.   Watch the US trade war, the Fed, global business conditions indicators, Chinese growth, politics and the Sydney and Melbourne property markets. Introduction 2017 was a great year for well diversified …

The five big fears that shaped 2018

The five big fears that shaped 2018 After solid returns and relatively low volatility in 2017, many investors entered 2018 fairly optimistic, however we expected returns would be more constrained and more volatile than they were last year. Looking at the big picture, global growth was good, we saw relatively low inflation globally and the Australian economy grew at a reasonable rate. Five big fears But five big concerns came together to deliver a surprisingly …

Weekly Market Update 11 January 2019

Weekly Market Update 11 January 2019 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Since our last weekly update three weeks ago investment markets have been on a bit of a roller coaster ride, with Santa missing Christmas for markets but arriving the day after. Global shares led by the US continued to plunge into Christmas as the US saw the start of a partial government shutdown taking the decline in the US share market …

The Aussie economy in 2019; it’s not boom but it’s not doom either

The Aussie economy in 2019; it’s not boom but it’s not doom either Investors might be confused about the mixed news coming out late last year for the Australian economy and what it means for returns and rates. Economic growth has been okay, and unemployment has fallen to five per cent which is quite low by Australian standards. But we’re also seeing ongoing weakness in house prices. Some say house price falls could be worse …

Weekly Market Update 21 December 2018

Weekly Market Update 21 December 2018 Investment markets and key developments over the past week The past week saw share markets fall further on the back of ongoing worries about growth not helped by a “not dovish enough” Fed, a lack of new measures to address China’s slowdown in a speech by President Xi Jinping, threats to US/Chinese negotiations, worries about a US government shutdown, a court ruling against America’s Affordable Care Act and problems at …

The Fed and market turmoil – the Fed turns a bit dovish but not enough (yet)

The Fed and market turmoil – the Fed turns a bit dovish but not enough (yet) Key points  The Fed has raised interest rates for the ninth time since first raising rates this cycle three years ago, taking the Fed Funds rate from a range of 2-2.25% to 2.25-2.5% reflecting ongoing confidence in US growth.  However, with US interest rates approaching the “neutral” zone, some interest sensitive sectors slowing, with various headwinds to growth, and …

Weekly Market Update 14 December 2018

Weekly Market Update 14 December 2018 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Share markets were mixed over the last week with nervousness around trade and global growth continuing, not helped by weak Chinese economic data. US, Eurozone and Chinese shares rose but Japanese and Australian shares fell. Despite a rise in material stocks over the last week the Australian share market was particularly dragged down by telcos, consumer staples, utilities and financials – …

Four reasons the global economic outlook for 2019 looks positive

Four reasons the global economic outlook for 2019 looks positive Many investors have been rattled by falls in share markets and are fretting about what the new year may hold. But there are a number of reasons to suggest that after a weak 2018, 2019 will be better, and that a well-diversified portfolio should deliver reasonable returns. 1. This is a “mid-cycle” correction Firstly, while some investors fear a recession and full-blown bear market, when …

The Australian economy 2019 – house prices, growth and interest rates

The Australian economy 2019 – house prices, growth and interest rates   Key points Australian growth has slowed again. The housing cycle downturn and its impact on the economy will likely see growth constrained to around 2.5-3%.   LAs a result, spare capacity is likely to remain significant, keeping wages growth and inflation low.   The RBA is likely to cut rates in 2019 and the housing downturn will likely see Australian shares continue to …