E – ESG Wrap (Econosights)

Econosights: The outlook for Australian wages | AMP Capital

Econosights: The outlook for Australian wages Key points Australian wages growth has been constrained because the supply of labour has increased since the beginning of the pandemic with the labour force participation rate now at a record high. High labour underutilisation over recent years has also kept a lid on wages growth. But, a tighter labour market, falling labour underutilisation, a higher inflation environment, a lift in the minimum wage and higher public sector wage …

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Econosights: The RBA, the neutral interest rate and how many hikes to expect | AMP Capital

Econosights: The RBA, the neutral interest rate and how many hikes to expect Key points Inflation is running hot around the world, driven by strong goods demand, global shipping and supply issues and high commodity prices. Higher than expected inflation in Australia will see the RBA lifting interest rates to at least 1% by Dec-2022 and 1.5% in the first half of 2023. A fall in inflation in 2023 from an easing in supply pressures …

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Econosights: Europe recession risks– implications from the war in Ukraine | AMP Capital

Econosights: Europe recession risks– implications from the war in Ukraine Key points Eurozone inflation is likely to be well over 6% per annum by mid-year from high commodity prices lifting electricity, gas and petrol costs. This will hit consumer spending. Risks of a Eurozone recession in the first half of 2022 are high. The US should avoid recession for now. The ECB appears too optimistic on the growth outlook despite the conflict in Ukraine which …

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Econosights: Four reasons to expect a softer US economy in 2022 | AMP Capital

Econosights: Four reasons to expect a softer US economy in 2022 Key points The US economy is facing numerous headwinds in 2022 which will slow US economic growth. Inflation is too high, interest rates are going to rise, the value of the Fed’s balance sheet will fall and fiscal “thrust” has turned negative. These factors are also leading to a peak in earnings growth. We expect lower equity returns in the US market in 2022 …

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Econosights: Impacts to Australia from Chinese trade restrictions | AMP Capital

Econosights: Impacts to Australia from Chinese trade restrictions Key points The total value of Australian exports to China impacted by trade disputes (which started in 2019) is $23bn (4.5% of total exports or 1% of GDP). The impact to the Australian economy from Chinese trade bans has been mild because the value of affected exports is low and as most sectors have been able to find alternative export markets. Coal, beef, copper ore, cotton, …

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Econosights: Should we be worried about an inflation breakout? | AMP Capital

Econosights: Should we be worried about an inflation breakout? Key points Current inflation concerns reflect a rise in consumer goods prices and a spike in energy costs. Most of the factors driving higher inflation reflect COVID related disruptions and should be temporary. But the inflation data is still likely to remain elevated over coming months. While a few central banks are starting to remove some monetary policy accommodation in response to inflation concerns, we don’t …

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An introduction to ‘ethical investing’ | Money & Life

An introduction to ‘ethical investing’ Growing concern about a range of environmental and social issues is fuelling a rise in ethical investing in Australia. Here’s a look at this fast expanding sector. For many personal and financial reasons, a growing number of investors are seeking to apply an ethical lens to their decision making. For some it’s about using their funds to drive change on issues like the climate, animal cruelty or human rights abuse. …

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Is hydrogen the silver bullet that organisations are leaning on? | AMP Capital

Is hydrogen the silver bullet that organisations are leaning on? Can renewable hydrogen reduce emissions and help solve climate change? As the dangers associated with climate change become more widely understood and accepted, the fight to save the planet and its people has intensified. As investors, we believe that stopping climate change will aid economic growth – as such we strive to understand how the companies we invest in can not only manage these …

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Econosights: Australian economic policy beyond COVID-19 | AMP Capital

Econosights: Australian economic policy beyond COVID-19 Key points The post-pandemic economic rebound is strong in Australia. But, after the initial bounce in activity, there is a need to reinvigorate the drivers of long-run economic growth. Productivity growth has been low in Australia and needs to lift to see a rise in incomes and living standards. Higher productivity growth is achieved through economic reform. Areas in Australia that deserve policy attention include: lifting household incomes …

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Econosights: Outlook for the US economy in 2021

Econosights: Outlook for the US economy in 2021 Key points The US is due for a strong economic recovery in 2021, driven by a large injection of fiscal stimulus. US GDP should have recovered its 2020 COVID losses in the March quarter and be back to its pre-COVID trend level of GDP by end of the year. Fiscal stimulus could overheat the economy in late 2021/early 2022. Consumer inflation expectations are already at multi-year highs. …